Tesla (TSLA) has been blasted for “Never Living Up To The Hype” on self-driving by a leading analyst ahead of its Q1 deliveries report this week.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade TSLATesla Has ‘Underperformed’
Gary Black, managing partner at the Future Fund, took to social media site X over the weekend to state that the Elon Musk-led EV maker had consistently disappointed on its Full Self-Driving promises and that it currently operates only 9 robotaxis without safety monitors. “Tesla has underperformed broader benchmarks because it has never lived up to the hype that its vehicles would operate autonomously without supervision,” he said.
He added that Google (GOOGL)-owned rival Waymo was powering ahead. “It is operating largely unsupervised, and Tesla still requires supervision,” Black said. “Until that changes, TSLA stock is stuck.”
He didn’t stop there, warning investors against relying on “overly positive” sell-side views tied to the potential record-breaking SpaceX IPO – another Musk company.
“At the expected $50B-$75B IPO size, SpaceX will be the biggest payday for Tesla analysts in years and with a big retail allocation, all will try to prove they are helpful to Tesla management and the deal underwriters,” Black said. “Quoting a TSLA sell-side analyst on the merits of SpaceX or a SpaceX/TSLA merger would be like quoting your insurance salesman on whether you need more insurance.”
Deliveries Set to Climb
Overall, he said that he remained cautious on TSLA as “2026-30 estimates decline, as competitors scale unsupervised autonomy, and carrying an extended valuation.”
Wall Street expects Tesla to report 365,645 deliveries for Q1 on April 2, with its Model 3 and Model Y cars accounting for the majority of demand. That would mark an 8% increase from the same period last year; however it would also be a steep 24% drop from the fourth quarter.
Analysts expect 351,179 vehicles of the total to come from the Model 3 and Model Y platforms, with the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck accounting for 13,946 units.
For the full year, analysts expect Tesla deliveries to reach 1.69 million vehicles, up from 1.64 million in 2025.
Is TSLA a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, TSLA has a Hold consensus based on 13 Buy, 11 Hold and 7 Sell ratings. Its highest price target is $600. TSLA stock’s consensus price target is $399.33, implying a 10.36% upside.
