Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) is scheduled to announce its Q1 2026 earnings on Thursday, April 16. NFLX stock has risen 14% year-to-date, reflecting optimism about the company’s ad business and content slate. Ahead of the first-quarter results, top Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris reiterated a Buy rating on Netflix stock with a price target of $130, saying he views the Q1 earnings call as “critical for understanding management’s strategic priorities.”
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Also, a top MoffettNathanson analyst raised his price target for NFLX stock ahead of Q1 2026 earnings.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects Netflix to report Q1 2026 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.76, reflecting 15% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to rise 15.6% to $12.18 billion.
Here’s What Guggenheim Analyst Expects from Netflix Earnings
Morris thinks that Netflix is heading into Q1 earnings with some questions in investors’ minds following the company’s decision to abandon its plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s (WBD) assets. The 5-star analyst believes that Netflix’s fundamentals remain strong, given the March 2026 price hikes across all U.S. tiers and management’s ad revenue outlook of roughly 100% jump to about $3 billion this year.
However, Morris cautioned that the “engagement picture presents a more complicated debate.” Guggenheim’s analysis of weekly global Top Ten data through March 29, 2026, shows that viewership was almost flat year-over-year (+0.2%). Also, Nielsen Gauge data from January 2026 revealed that Netflix’s total TV viewing share stood at 8.8%, reflecting a 3.2% year-over-year decline in viewership, the first since June 2025.
That said, Morris noted that company and third-party data show only part of the full picture and have some shortcomings. Also, Netflix has continued to grow profits even as engagement trends have slowed.
Nonetheless, Morris believes investors are focused on how Netflix intends to pursue further growth. Specifically, investors are keen to know what the company’s deployment plans are to drive growth, given a free cash flow estimate of $11 billion for 2026 and no near-term M&A overhang. The analyst sees four possibilities – smaller strategic acquisitions, expanded sports rights, replicating the TF1 deal model’s success globally, and aggressive capital returns.
MoffettNathanson Analyst Raises NFLX Stock Price Target
MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson increased his price target for Netflix stock to $120 from $115 and reiterated a Buy rating. The 5-star analyst believes that Netflix’s strong subscription business model and incremental growth from its advertising business justify a premium valuation multiple.
Nathanson values NFLX based on his improved 2028 EPS estimate of $4.65, with an implied PEG (price/earnings to growth) ratio of 1.15, slightly above the S&P 500 (SPX).
Is Netflix a Good Stock to Buy?
With 30 Buys and nine Holds, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Netflix stock. The average NFLX stock price target of $115.84 indicates about 9% upside potential.
