MP Materials Stock (MP) Primed for Growth; China’s Grip on Rare Earths Will Weaken, Say Analysts

MP Materials’ (MP) shares fell about 3% early Monday despite a report naming the U.S.-based miner as central to driving non-Chinese rare earth supply as China’s grip is seen loosening by 2030.

According to the report by Bloomberg Intelligence, MP Materials, alongside counterparts such as Australia-based Lynas Rare Earths (LYSCF), will be the primary force driving supply expansion outside of China, propelling the market through their operations in North America and Australia.

MP Materials to Anchor Non-Chinese Rare Earth Output

For instance, the report sees these companies pushing the supply of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) 41% higher by 2030, while China’s supply drops by 21 percentage points from current levels. NdPr is a key rare earth material used to make the high‑strength magnets found in electric vehicle motors, offshore wind turbines, defense and robotic equipment, and consumer electronics such as smartphones and headphones.

The report sees this role for companies such as MP Materials as their output is anticipated to more than quadruple, fueled by public funding support from President Donald Trump’s administration. This is to come against a tightening global supply backdrop, with demand from sectors including autos, consumer electronics, and the defense-industrial base projected to grow about 7% a year through 2030.

Meanwhile, the report cautioned that most of the planned capacity is already tied up in existing contracts, therefore increasing the risk of continued shortages.

U.S. Race to Counter China’s Rare Earth Control

The new report comes as U.S. tech and aerospace continue to face shortages of rare earth elements such as yttrium and scandium — whose supply is dominated by Chinese producers – despite the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China.

The U.S. continues to make moves to loosen China’s dominance of the market and reduce its reliance on the Asian economic powerhouse. Early last month, Vice President JD Vance, at a 50-nation summit hosted by the U.S., announced plans to create a price floor for critical minerals and launch a trade bloc for the commodities.

Is MP Materials Stock a Good Buy?

On Wall Street, analysts remain confident in MP Materials and have a Strong Buy consensus rating on its shares. This is based on seven Buys recommended over the past three months.

Moreover, the average MP price target of $81 implies about 38% upside from current trading levels.