The countdown has officially begun for Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), with Wall Street bracing for the most closely watched earnings report of the quarter when the AI giant reports results Wednesday after the closing bell.
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High conviction NVDA bears now have this Tradr ETFExpectations are running sky-high after a wave of analysts raised price targets ahead of the print, while investors debate whether Nvidia can keep extending the AI-driven rally that has already transformed it into the world’s most valuable company.
At the same time, the environment heading into earnings has grown more tense following rising Treasury yields and concerns that expectations surrounding AI spending may have climbed too far. That leaves Nvidia’s results, guidance, and commentary carrying importance for investors watching demand for Blackwell chips, competition from custom AI processors, gross margins, and the progress of the company’s next-generation Rubin platform.
According to Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore, an analyst ranked among the top 2% on Wall Street, the company still appears positioned for another strong quarter, with Moore expecting “continued upside to numbers and a bullish tone on key debates (market share vs ASIC, gross margin, Rubin readiness).”
However, on whether that ignites another rally, Moore is more nuanced.
“We think the quarter will be a positive step towards a stock rerating,” he opined, before adding, “Nvidia can only do so much on a Q1 earnings call to ease concerns on longer-term debates.”
Nevertheless, Moore sees Nvidia’s usual beat-and-raise pattern, with a roughly $3 billion beat and guidance coming in about $4 billion higher, as a “likely outcome.”
Regarding Nvidia’s target for its leading AI accelerators reaching $1 trillion in revenue from 2025 to 2027, Moore estimates that calendar year 2025 included about $25 billion of Hopper compute, or closer to $30 billion if networking is included. Adjusting that out of the $185 billion in data center revenue leaves about $155 billion, which implies roughly $845 billion of data center revenue across 2026-2027. This is before accounting for additional contributors such as Groq, standalone CPUs, and ICMS, which could provide “substantial upside.”
By contrast, consensus expectations for total data center revenue over the same period are around $785 billion. But Moore has now increased his estimates to $884 billion for calendar years 2026 to 2027, or about $1.07 trillion across calendar years 2025 to 2027.
“We think consensus is likely to move much closer to our estimates as Nvidia reaffirms their visibility to those numbers, which importantly should include a discussion of supply constraints that need to be managed en route to that,” the 5-star analyst opined. These constraints include powered shell availability, leading-edge wafer capacity, and DRAM supply.
Moore also thinks concerns about market share matter less if Nvidia’s $1 trillion outlook proves roughly correct. That scenario would imply earnings of around $4 per share by the end of 2027, or roughly $16 on a run-rate basis.
At that level, the stock’s current price suggests investors are assuming very limited long-term growth in profits and cash flow, likely due to fears around margin pressure, competition, or a slowdown in AI spending.
“All debates we think can turn more in Nvidia’s favor as Rubin begins to ship in volume later this year and is key to our positive view on the risk-reward,” the analyst confidently said.
As such, Moore still considers NVDA his “top pick in semis,” assigning the stock an Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating, while raising his price target from $260 to $285. The new figure implies a one-year upside of 29%. (To watch Moore’s track record, click here)
The Street’s average target is only slightly lower, and at $281.97, makes room for 12-month returns of ~28%. All told, based on a mix of 40 Buys and 1 Hold and Sell, each, the analyst consensus rates NVDA a Strong Buy. (See NVDA stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.