Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) rise to the top has been built on some extraordinary earnings releases but with the chip giant soon to report fiscal third-quarter results (November 20), investors should keep near-term expectations in check.
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That, at least, is the view of Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore. While Moore isn’t bearish on NVDA, he suggests there’s good reason to believe its upside may be capped for the moment.
“We are back to fully supply constrained on new products, which could limit upside on current quarter and outlook,” the 5-star analyst explained. “The current environment is completely supply constrained on Blackwell, and also partly on H200; we expect another very good quarter, but we think the bigger upward revisions happen later in the year.”
During the last earnings call, the company indicated that the January quarter would see “several billion” in revenue from Blackwell, and Moore now anticipates this figure to be around $5-6 billion. This is above the “implied number” but slightly below forecasts from a few weeks ago, although Moore notes it is currently difficult to gauge this precisely. The analyst also expects a modest increase in demand for Hopper GPUs, observing that demand for the H100 appears softer, while interest in the H200 looks more robust.
Overall, Moore expects the patterns seen in recent quarters to repeat again. The company has been outperforming the guide by about $2 billion in recent quarters, and has guided for quarter-over-quarter growth of $2 billion (and $2.5 billion in the most recent quarter). However, the consensus for January is already there at $36.5 billion. While the company might guide a bit higher this time, supply constraints will likely limit the upside.
Nevertheless, while Moore says he’s maintaining a conservative approach in his forecasts “beyond the period of visibility,” he believes Blackwell is now effectively sold out “deep into” the October quarter. As a result, Moore has raised his growth forecasts and for FY26 he now expects $176.78 billion in revenue, a 73.8% non-GAAP gross margin, and $4.03 non-GAAP EPS, up from the prior $166.9 billion, 73.7%, and $3.78, respectively.
“We view this as something of a transitional quarter, and thus not a major catalyst for the stock, but we remain Overweight/Top Pick given expectations that the Blackwell cycle will continue to drive meaningful upside through 2h,” Moore summed up.
Along with that Overweight (i.e. Buy) rating, Moore has also raised his price target from $150 to $160, suggesting the stock will gain 10% in the months ahead. (To watch Moore’s track record, click here)
Overall, Nvidia boasts a Strong Buy consensus rating from 37 analysts, with 3 Holds. The average price target of $157.27 suggests an 8% premium over current prices in the next year.
Overall, Nvidia has most of Wall Street’s analysts on its side. Out of 41 recent analyst reviews, 3 recommend a Hold, while all the rest say Buy, naturally culminating in a Strong Buy consensus rating. Going by the $157.27 average target, a year from now shares will be changing hands for a 6% premium. (See Nvidia stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
