Fast food chain McDonald’s (MCD) is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results on Thursday, May 7. MCD stock is down 7% year-to-date amid concerns about sales pressure, high costs, and the impact of geopolitical risks on business. According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 3.5% move in either direction in MCD stock in reaction to Q1 2026 earnings.
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This implied move is higher than MCD stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 1.72% over the past four quarters.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects MCD to report EPS (earnings per share) of $2.75, reflecting about 3% year-over-year growth. Revenue is projected to rise by 8.6% to $6.47 billion.
Analysts’ Views on McDonald’s Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings
Ahead of Q1 results, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger reiterated a Buy rating on MCD stock with a price target of $365. While the analyst expects MCD’s Q1 key metrics to miss expectations, he remains bullish as he believes that the “brand remains well positioned globally and maintains important initiatives to strengthen trends.”
Geiger expects U.S. same-store sales growth of 3.5%, compared to the consensus of 4%, and International Operated Markets (IOM) segment same-store sales growth of 3.5%, compared to the consensus of 3.8%. He added that momentum was solid at the start of Q1 2026, driven by the Hot Honey Sauce and menu lineup, partially offset by severe winter weather. However, trends likely slowed later in Q1 due to higher gas prices and unfavorable consumer sentiment.
Furthermore, Geiger noted that discussions indicate negative investor sentiment due to decelerating U.S. sales trends so far in Q2 2026, tough U.S. comparisons in the second half, and potential impacts of the Middle East conflict. That said, Geiger expects strong execution on key sales plans to continue, with value focus, marketing initiatives, and menu innovation expected to drive growth.
Recently, Rothschild & Co. Redburn analyst Chris Luyckx upgraded McDonald’s stock to Hold from Sell and increased the price target to $306 from $260. The analyst noted that McDonald’s initiatives have helped U.S. traffic return to growth and drive an inflection in the two-year stacked same-store sales trend, moving from negative to positive. That said, risks from increasing adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs remain, though currently the impact is limited by high costs for lower-income consumers. Luyckx added that MCD stock is trading at a 10-year average P/E of 23.3x, leaving little room for further upside.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on MCD Stock
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has an Outperform rating on McDonald’s stock with a price target of $322, indicating 13.34% upside potential. The AI Analyst’s rating is based on solid profitability and cash generation, positive technical momentum, and an upbeat 2026 outlook for unit growth and margin expansion. However, the AI Analyst cautioned about balance-sheet risk (negative equity and high debt), a relatively rich valuation, and near-term challenges, including weather, macro pressures in China, and high capex.
Is MCD Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Heading into Q1 earnings, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on McDonald’s stock based on 14 Buys and 12 Holds. The average MCD stock price target of $347.13 indicates 22.2% upside potential.
