With the U.S. presidential election fast approaching, betting markets like Polymarket are seeing major activity, especially around Kamala Harris’ odds of winning. In a matter of days, her odds jumped from 33% to nearly 39%, sparking intrigue in the trading world. This increase reflects what some observers view as hedging by traders who have invested in her opponent, Donald Trump, in the event of a last-minute upset.
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Betting on Harris as a Hedge Against Trump
According to CoinDesk, Polymarket data indicates heavy trading in Harris “yes” shares over the past day. For instance, some large bets surpassing $10,000 have been placed, potentially as a hedge against losses on Trump shares. This strategy makes sense in light of recent “voting irregularities” allegations brought forth by Trump supporters in key swing states. Traders appear to be betting on Harris as a contingency, with a $10,000 investment on her victory promising a payout of $25,000 if she wins—a hefty 150% return.
The Market and Trump’s Declining Odds
Despite the increase in Harris’ odds, Trump remains the favored candidate on Polymarket, although his odds dropped from 61%. “There’s a great arbitrage opportunity right now,” noted @Kevin_Bolger on X, referring to potential gains by betting on both platforms. This dynamic, fueled by the volatile nature of the crypto-based market, demonstrates how quickly election rumors and speculation can impact betting odds.
Robinhood’s Election Contracts Could Drive Revenue Growth
In a timely move, Robinhood (HOOD) recently introduced 2024 election trading contracts, adding a new revenue stream to its platform. This feature allows users to trade contracts on Kamala Harris or Donald Trump outcomes, similar to Polymarket’s setup. By tapping into election predictions, Robinhood stands to increase engagement and transaction volume.
Is HOOD Stock a Good Buy?
Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about HOOD stock, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on nine Buys, seven Holds, and one Sell. Over the past year, HOOD has skyrocketed by more than 150%, and the average HOOD price target of $25.50 implies a downside potential of 8.6% from current levels.
