Traders on prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, are now giving the ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear deal a real shot after news broke that the two countries have been quietly talking. Still, nobody is declaring victory, with confidence levels below where they were a few months ago. The uncertainty around the peace deal has been driving the broader market lower, with stocks, crypto, and oil all standing to be affected by whatever results come from the negotiation table.
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Kalshi Traders Raise U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Odds
Betting markets are heating up again after news leaked about secret talks between the U.S. and Iran. On the Kalshi platform, traders are putting more money on a deal happening by 2027. The odds of a long-term agreement jumped to 58%, while the odds of a deal by this September hit 47%.
While people are feeling a bit more positive, the numbers still haven’t reached the record highs that were seen in April, when excitement was at its peak. The reason for the sudden change was a Wednesday report from Axios saying both sides are close to ending the conflict in the Middle East.
However, the talks are still in the early stages. While a peace deal might force Iran to pause its nuclear work, they have only agreed to keep discussions ongoing for now. Iran said it is reviewing a proposal from the U.S., but no proof of a breakthrough has been shared yet. Because there is more talk than action right now, traders are staying somewhat cautious.
Different Markets Have Different Views on the Future
Meanwhile, on Kalshi’s biggest prediction markets rival, Polymarket, people are much more confident. It shows that 65% are betting that a nuclear deal may happen before 2027. This is a good deal higher than what is shown on Kalshi.
However, Polymarket’s contract for a deal by May 31 puts the odds at just 23.5%, which is a far cry from the 65% figure on the longer-dated contract. So trader confidence really depends on the deadline in question.
Notably, U.S. President Donald Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to respond to Washington’s proposal or risk further military pressure. On May 6, he said there was a “very good chance” of a deal and issued a one-week response deadline. This ticking clock is what traders are now pricing around.
What Is the Best Gambling Stock to Buy Now?
Polymarket and Kalshi are still private companies without publicly traded stock. However, investors interested in gambling stocks can consider well-known players like DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), MGM Resorts (MGM), and Wynn Resorts (WYNN). All of these stocks can be tracked on the TipRanks Stocks Comparison Center.
