Congressional attention has sharpened on prediction market operators Kalshi and Polymarket. This comes amid rising worries about insider trading and the platforms’ role in wagering on political, economic, and geopolitical outcomes.
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Lawmakers from the Democratic and Republican parties have highlighted suspicious trading activity linked to events such as U.S. military actions. This has prompted calls for stronger oversight beyond current Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules.
Kalshi and Polymarket Get Probed by Lawmakers
In recent months, Kalshi has attracted fresh scrutiny following reports of well-timed bets that appeared to coincide with major geopolitical developments, including conflicts involving Iran and Venezuela. These cases have raised questions about whether some traders may have had access to non-public or sensitive information.
The New York-based platform, which accounts for roughly 90% of the U.S. prediction market share, has defended its operations while launching a high-profile advertising campaign across Washington. This campaign has included billboards, bus shelter ads, and inserts in The Washington Post to set itself apart from competitors.
Meanwhile, Polymarket is also under examination, with past investigations involving the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the CFTC—though those probes were closed without charges. Together, the two firms reportedly spent nearly $1 million on federal lobbying in 2025. Polymarket has also expanded its visibility in Washington by hosting a pop-up bar and sharing advisory ties with Donald Trump Jr., who is also linked to Kalshi.
On March 23, 2026, both prediction market companies announced new, improved rules and surveillance tools to block politicians from trading on their own campaigns. They also restricted athletes from sports-related contracts and users from exploiting non-public information.
Congressional Pressure Prompts Industry Adjustments
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly, with combined trading volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket reaching tens of billions of dollars in March 2026 alone. This surge has sparked bipartisan concerns over potential conflicts, including government officials’ trading and impacts on state gambling revenues. It has also prompted proposed legislation such as the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, introduced by U.S. Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis.
The platforms have tightened internal controls in response to growing regulatory scrutiny while continuing to operate under CFTC oversight. Because Kalshi and Polymarket are both private companies, investors actively track these developments, as there are no direct market price reactions.
For Kalshi and Polymarket, the ongoing congressional scrutiny is now a key test of compliance. It could also shape the types of contracts they are allowed to offer and the broader regulatory standards governing prediction markets going forward.
Can I Invest in Kalshi or Polymarket?
Kalshi and Polymarket are private companies and do not trade on any public stock exchange. Their shares remain available only to accredited investors through private markets or secondary platforms. For investors interested in gambling stocks, visit the TipRanks Stocks Comparison Center to explore the performance, ratings, and price targets of well-known players such as DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), Churchill Downs (CHDN), and others.
