Home Depot (HD) is scheduled to announce its results for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026 before the market opens on Tuesday, May 19. HD stock has declined 21% over the past year due to weakness in the U.S. housing market amid high mortgage rates. Moreover, macro uncertainty is weighing on consumers’ discretionary spending. Wall Street expects Home Depot to report earnings per share (EPS) of $3.41, reflecting a 4.2% year-over-year decline. Net sales are expected to rise 4.4% to $41.6 billion.
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Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the demand backdrop and any potential revision to the full-year guidance. Management had guided for full-year comparable sales growth in the range of flat to up 2%.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Home Depot’s Q1 Earnings
Heading into Q1 earnings, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma reiterated a Buy rating on Home Depot stock and lowered his price target to $281 from $303. The 4-star analyst noted that expectations remain subdued for both Home Depot and Lowe’s (LOW). Ma expects Home Depot to report higher comparable sales, with the SRS acquisition helping the company to benefit from snowstorm-related repair and maintenance activities. For the full year, the analyst doesn’t expect Home Depot and Lowe’s to update guidance yet.
Also, Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith slightly lowered his price target for Home Depot stock to $421 from $422 and reiterated a Buy rating. The 4-star analyst noted that consumer spending has been resilient despite concerns about the impact of surging gas prices on discretionary spending.
While tax refunds were notable in the first quarter, Keith noted that there is no clear evidence of any benefits at retail, indicating that they were likely saved by middle/upper income cohorts. Overall, Keith thinks that lackluster sales trends continued from Q4 2025 for home improvement retailers.
AI Analyst Is Cautious on Home Depot Stock
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has a Neutral rating on Home Depot stock with a price target of $320, indicating about 7% upside potential. The AI Analyst’s rating reflects strong profitability and cash flow, offset by slowing/negative top-line growth, margin pressure, and elevated leverage. Earnings call guidance indicates modest recovery, but near-term EPS and margin pressure limit upside.
Here’s What Options Traders Expect
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 4.88% move in either direction in Home Depot stock in reaction to Q1 FY26 earnings. This implied move is higher than HD stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 2.95% over the past four quarters.
Is HD Stock a Good Buy?
Despite ongoing challenges, Wall Street remains bullish on HD stock due to its long-term growth prospects. Home Depot scores a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 16 Buys and five Holds. The average HD stock price target of $403.58 indicates about 35% upside potential. HD offers a dividend yield of about 3%.
