Fintech company SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is scheduled to announce its first-quarter results on April 29. The company has been rapidly expanding its member base and delivering strong growth in its business. However, SOFI stock has declined 28% year-to-date due to concerns about its valuation, macro uncertainties, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Moreover, a short-seller report by Muddy Waters, which included allegations about SoFi’s accounting practices and other matters, added to investors’ woes. Ahead of Q1 earnings, Truist analyst Matthew Coad slightly lowered his price target for SOFI stock to $20 from $21 and reiterated a Hold rating.
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Coad thinks the backdrop looks mostly positive, as results from U.S. banks indicate upside in volumes for the payments group, acceleration in consumer spending growth so far this year, and improved valuations following the recent pullback in stocks. That said, Coad advises investors to be selective and avoid stocks that may face downward revisions.
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects SoFi to report EPS (earnings per share) of $0.12, reflecting a 100% year-over-year jump. Revenue is projected to rise 36% to $1.05 billion.
Truist Expects SoFi’s Q1 EPS and Revenue to Meet Street’s Expectations
Coad expects SoFi to deliver Q1 2026 adjusted net revenue of $1.049 billion, reflecting 36% year-over-year growth, in line with the Street’s expectations. The analyst highlighted that his Financial Services segment’s revenue estimate is about one percentage point below the Street’s estimate of $468 million.
Furthermore, Coad noted that his adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin estimate of 30% is almost in line with the company’s guidance of 29%, but his adjusted EBITDA estimate is about one percentage point below the Street’s projection. Also, Coad’s diluted EPS estimate of $0.12 is in line with the Street’s projection and the company’s guidance. The EPS estimate reflects the impact of a higher share count resulting from the option included in the company’s December equity raise.
Looking ahead, the analyst still views the 30% adjusted net revenue growth estimate for 2026 as achievable. That said, Coad is concerned about net interest margin (NIM) compression due to a shift in mix toward lower-yielding student loans and lower growth in origination volume as the company retains more loans.
Coad also flagged concerns about private credit and potential impact on funding, as well as a change in interest rate cut expectations since SoFi issued its 2026 guidance. The analyst expects management to discuss these aspects and the company’s ability to sustain member growth, given rising competition in the neobanking space with both Revolut and NuBank (NU) expanding their U.S. operations.
Is SOFI a Good Stock to Buy?
Heading into Q1 earnings, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on SoFi Technologies stock based on seven Holds, five Buys, and three Sells. The average SOFI stock price target of $22.89 indicates 22% upside potential.
