E-commerce and cloud computing giant Amazon (AMZN) continues to be the “Best Idea” for J.P.Morgan. In a research note on the state of U.S. e-commerce, J.P.Morgan’s 5-star analyst Doug Anmuth reiterated a Buy rating on AMZN stock with a price target of $240 based on a valuation multiple of 32.5x his 2026 free cash flow estimate of $75 billion.
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Top J.P.Morgan Analyst Stays Bullish on AMZN Stock
JPMorgan expects U.S. e-commerce growth to decelerate to 5.3% in 2025 compared to 7.6% in 2024, but penetration to increase by 54 basis points to 23.2% of 2025 U.S. adjusted retail sales. Anmuth believes that a volatile macro backdrop has impacted consumer sentiment and spending, and tariffs could move prices higher and weigh on consumer confidence and spending trends. He expects growth to reaccelerate in a likely more stable macro environment in 2026, and estimates mid to high single-digit growth in U.S. e-commerce sales, with penetration reaching 25% by 2027.
Coming to Amazon, Anmuth noted that the company’s U.S. gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 9.2% to $536 billion in 2024, securing a 46% share of U.S. e-commerce and an 11% share of U.S. adjusted retail sales. Notably, Amazon’s share of U.S. e-commerce has almost doubled since 2015, while its share of U.S. adjusted retail sales has nearly quadrupled, led by diverse merchandise volume base, delivery speed, vast merchandise selection, and competitive pricing.
Interestingly, based on estimates, Anmuth expects Amazon to surpass Walmart (WMT) as the largest U.S. retailer in 2025, fueled by growth in underpenetrated categories, faster delivery speed, the Prime flywheel, and the strength of third-party business.
Overall, Anmuth believes that Amazon is well-positioned as the market leader in e-commerce and public cloud, where the secular shifts remain in the early phase. The analyst expects the company’s high-growth AWS (Amazon Web Services) and advertising revenue streams, which are its most profitable businesses, to further support higher margins and free cash flow generation.
Anmuth ranks 56th among more than 9,634 analysts tracked by TipRanks. He has a success rate of 64%, with an average return per rating of 21.6% over a one-year period.
What Is the Price Target for Amazon Stock?
Overall, Wall Street is bullish on Amazon stock, with a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 46 Buys and one Hold recommendation. The average AMZN stock price forecast of $242.48 indicates 15.6% upside potential.
