Congress returned to Capitol Hill on Tuesday following a six-week recess, with about four weeks to strike a spending deal before funding runs out on September 30. However, the likelihood of a government shutdown “is almost certain,” said Pangaea Policy founder Terry Haines in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
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Tensions between the Democrats and Republicans were further stirred after President Trump utilized a pocket rescission to unilaterally slash $5 billion of previously approved foreign aid last week. “Democrats feel politically that they have to make some huge political show of Trump resistance,” Haines said.
Government Shutdown Odds Jump to 51%
On prediction platform Polymarket, the odds of a government shutdown in 2025 jumped to 51%, rising from 45% during the past 24 hours.
In addition to Trump’s pocket rescission strategy, other key issues between the two political parties include Medicaid cuts embedded in The One Big Beautiful Bill, federal troops in Washington, D.C., and the Epstein files.
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