GOOS, QSR, RY: OECD Says Canada Likely to Avoid Recession Despite U.S. Tariffs

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is forecasting that Canada will avoid an economic recession this year, although growth is expected to be flat.

In its latest outlook for Canada, the OECD is forecasting growth to come in at 1% for all of 2025, with economic activity contracting in the second quarter of the year, followed by flat growth. Many other economists, including at Canada’s banks, are predicting two back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth this year, which is the technical definition of a recession.

The positive outlook from the OECD is helping to lift Canada’s benchmark Toronto Stock Exchange about 1% higher on May 27 as shares of leading companies such as Canada Goose (GOOS), Restaurant Brands International (QSR), and Royal Bank of Canada (RY) move upwards on the day.

Beating the U.S. Market

Canada’s leading stock exchange is in the rare position of outperforming its U.S. counterpart so far this year. The Toronto Stock Exchange is up 5% in 2025, while the benchmark S&P 500 index in New York is flat year-to-date (up 0.31%).

Analysts say Canadian stocks are benefitting as investors look to diversify their portfolios beyond the U.S. market. The OECD remains generally positive on the outlook for Canada’s economy, saying that the country is well-positioned to absorb the trade shock caused by U.S. tariffs in the short-term.

GOOS stock has risen 21% this year and has been on an upswing since reporting strong first-quarter financial results.

Is GOOS Stock a Buy?

The stock of Canada Goose has a consensus Moderate Sell rating among 10 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on six Hold and four Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average GOOS price target of $10.80 implies 11.04% downside risk from current levels.

Read more analyst ratings on GOOS stock