The gold price could be on the march to $4,000 an ounce after reports that the U.S. is imposing tariffs on bullion bars.
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Import Levies
The spot gold price climbed 0.4% to $3,401 an ounce and gold futures raced to fresh highs above $3,500 after reports that 1kg and 100-ounce gold bars would be subject to import levies by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency.
The move threatens to disrupt global trade flows from Switzerland and other key trading and refining hubs including London and Hong Kong. Switzerland’s gold exports have become a flashpoint in its trade negotiations with the U.S., after a surge in shipments earlier this year caused the U.S.’s trade deficit with the country to spike.
Bullion traders had expected gold bars to be exempt from Trump’s tariff tirade, including the 39% rate imposed on Switzerland. “Gold is moved back and forth between central banks and reserves around the world,” said Robert Gottlieb, a former precious metals trader and managing director at JPMorgan Chase, referring to the bars. “We never ever thought that it would be hit by a tariff.”
Safe Haven
AJ Bell head of financial analysis Danni Hewson added: “Sustained by factors like its safe haven credentials and a weakening dollar in 2025 – this latest development will have gold bugs eyeing the $4,000 level.”
The gold price has already been on quite the tear this year because of global trade and economic uncertainty. It has surged over 28% as can be seen below.
Markets are now increasingly pricing in the chance of a cut next month following weak economic data including a slowdown in the U.S. services sector in July and job numbers. Indeed, there is a 95% chance of a rate cut in September, according to CME’s (CME) FedWatch tool.
Lower interest rates are good news for gold as they make holding non-yielding assets more attractive.
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