Gold (XAUUSD) is up by 60% year-to-date and is on track for its best year since 1979. At the same time, the World Gold Council (WGC) believes that the precious metal has plenty of upside left, driven by geopolitical tensions and demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
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“The combination of falling yields, elevated geopolitical stress and a pronounced flight-to-safety would create exceptionally strong tailwinds for gold, supporting a sharp move higher,” the WGC wrote in its Gold Outlook 2026 report. “Under this scenario gold could surge 15-30% in 2026 from current levels.”
Gold Benefits From Lower Rates, Vulnerable to Stronger U.S. Dollar
Given its status as a safe-haven asset, gold could also benefit from slowing economic growth and increased market volatility. Lower rates could also boost gold, as the opportunity cost of holding it relative to interest-bearing assets would drop.
The WGC adds that stronger economic growth and lower geopolitical uncertainty could lead to higher rates and a stronger U.S. dollar, creating a risk for gold since it is priced in dollars.
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