‘Expect Netflix Shares to Trade Lower,’ Warns Five-Star Analyst

Video streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) is facing some criticism from analysts after its latest earnings report, with most of the focus on capital allocation and guidance. For instance, five-star Citi (C) analyst Jason Bazinet said that investors were expecting Netflix to increase its stock buybacks after it dropped a potential deal with Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Instead, management kept its strategy the same, did not change its 2026 outlook, and gave weaker-than-expected guidance for the second quarter. As a result, Bazinet warned that the stock could move lower, especially after its recent rally.

In addition, Netflix slowed down its share repurchases, which added to investor concerns. Indeed, the company bought back only $1.3 billion of stock in Q1, compared to a $2.3 billion quarterly average in 2025. This happened even though the stock declined slightly during the quarter, which some investors see as a missed opportunity to show confidence. At the same time, Netflix did not raise its full-year 2026 revenue guidance, which remains between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion.

Its operating margin forecast of 31.5% also came in below expectations, suggesting that costs, such as content spending, may be higher than expected. Separately, Pivotal Research’s four-star-rated Jeff Wlodarczak said the stock looks fairly valued, and that future growth may depend more on price increases and advertising than on subscriber growth. He also noted that the story lacks excitement, given the current valuation. On top of that, longtime chairman Reed Hastings is stepping down, which adds another layer of uncertainty.

Is Netflix a Good Stock to Buy Now?

Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on NFLX stock based on 31 Buys, nine Holds, and zero Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average NFLX price target of $115.42 per share implies 18.6% upside potential.