Ethereum’s $4.1K Dream Signals Altseason — But Is the Floor About to Crack?

Ethereum (ETH-USD) just hit a level that’s set off altcoin rallies in the past — and some analysts are calling it the start of a full-blown altseason. But this isn’t 2021. Macro risk, whale behavior, and historical price traps could still throw ETH off course.

Here’s what’s really happening — and what it could mean for the entire altcoin market.

ETH Reclaims a Signal Line That’s Preceded 100%+ Rallies

Ethereum just closed above the mid-line of its Gaussian Channel on the two-week chart — a technical level that’s historically kicked off major bull runs. Last time ETH pulled this off, it ran from $1,500 to nearly $4,000. Before that? It exploded from $400 to $4,800.

If history repeats, ETH could break through $3,200 resistance and push toward $4,100 by July. That’s the optimistic setup. But the market has changed — and so has the risk.

Altcoin Market Could Follow — If Bitcoin Dominance Breaks

ETH’s momentum has often been the green light for altcoins. According to fractal data from past cycles, when Ethereum surges, altcoins (excluding ETH) have followed with 1,400% to 200% gains.

But here’s the catch: It usually happens around 400 days after a Bitcoin halving, when BTC dominance drops and money flows into smaller tokens. That window is now. If BTC dominance slides again, it could push the altcoin market cap toward $15 trillion, as some analysts like Wimar X suggest.

$123 Billion of ETH May Be Sitting on a Trapdoor

On the flip side, a massive portion of ETH’s market cap — over $123 billion — sits in wallets that bought between $2,300 and $2,500, according to Glassnode. If ETH dips below that range, many holders go underwater — a setup that could lead to panic selling and wreck the rally.

Translation: ETH’s technicals look strong, but its footing is fragile. If momentum slips, it won’t take much to flip the entire sentiment.

At the time of writing, Ethereum is sitting at $2,663.58.