Escape Velocity: SpaceX IPO Eclipses NVIDIA Earnings

The S&P 500 (SPX) extended its winning run to an eighth straight week, the longest streak since December 2023, ending up 0.88%. The Nasdaq-100 (NDX) clocked in a weekly gain of 1.22%, driven up by semis once again, as iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) surged 5.30%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) led the gains among key U.S. indexes, jumping 2.13% to a record.

The Iran conflict continues to create uncertainty, with different parts of the capital markets interpreting developments differently. While bond investors appeared hopeful – sending 10-year Treasury yields lower – crude oil prices edged up on Friday, reflecting skepticism. Meanwhile, stock markets largely shrugged off the headlines, with focus shifting back to earnings, AI, and domestic economic signals.

Last week’s key positive catalyst was the Commerce Department’s announcement of $2 billion in grants to nine quantum-computing companies. IBM (IBM) was the standout winner, receiving $1 billion alone as the established leader in the race to a commercially viable solution. The company is adding $1 billion of its own capital to launch America’s first specialized quantum chip foundry. Shares of IBM soared 16% on the week, its best weekly result since 2002, significantly boosting the DJIA.

Investors continued to pour into AI hardware and infrastructure stocks. Strong gains were seen across both AI-reformed legacy names like Cisco (CSCO), Dell (DELL), and Intel (INTC), and those that rose to fame in the past few years, like Marvell (MRVL) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). As technology advances rapidly, new bottlenecks are emerging faster than capex can address them. Memory stocks like Micron (MU) are flying high, while the CPU bottleneck is benefiting Intel and AMD, and high-speed networking names like Credo (CRDO) are seeing strong investor interest.

Another major source of optimism was SpaceX’s long-awaited IPO filing. The move generated such buzz that it overshadowed even NVIDIA’s (NVDA) earnings. The chip leader saw negative post-earnings reaction for the fourth time in a row after it flew past expectations for the 14^th straight quarter as part of a normal profit-taking trend. Still, NVIDIA and the broader AI trade helped cap one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent years. S&P 500 companies reported 28.4% year-over-year earnings growth in Q1 2026 – one of the best results in history outside of post-recession recoveries.

This has confirmed that advanced tech is a highly profitable business, creating an extremely positive setup for SpaceX. Elon Musk is aiming to raise at least $75-80 billion at a valuation of $1.75-2 trillion, roughly three times the previous record set by Saudi Aramco. After merging with xAI, SpaceX is now both a dominant space company and a major AI player. SpaceX leads the launch business with over 70% market share, and controls Starlink – the fastest-growing satellite internet service globally. Meanwhile, xAI is the world’s #3 AI lab that also owns the largest concentrated AI-training cluster globally, Colossus. No wonder investors are excited about gaining exposure to multiple high-growth megatrends in one IPO.

The exuberance around SpaceX has also accelerated IPO plans for pure-play AI labs. OpenAI is expected to file confidentially very soon, targeting a potential listing in Q4 2026 at a valuation above $1 trillion. Anthropic is also speeding up plans for a late-2026 IPO, potentially at $800-900 billion. Wall Street is now discussing 2026 as the biggest IPO year ever, with the three companies possibly adding up to $4 trillion in combined market value. This setup is fueling a powerful sense of optimism, as investors appear eager to buy into what is seen as the biggest multi-decade growth story.