Betting markets are largely pricing in that President Trump will select National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as his pick to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026. On Polymarket, Hassett holds 81% odds, followed by former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh at 10%. On Tuesday, Trump said that he would likely announce his choice in early 2026.
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Meanwhile, the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the December 9-10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting remain near certain at 89% on CME’s FedWatch tool.
Fed Chair Speculation Draws Market Attention
Hassett is viewed as taking a more dovish stance than Powell and could accelerate the pace of rate cuts next year. Earlier this year, he echoed Trump’s criticism of the Fed for taking a partisan approach and not cutting rates sooner. Hassett also has a close relationship with Trump and was the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019.
However, “Former Fed gov Kevin Warsh’s chances, according to a person involved in the process, is ‘better than the media suggests,'” said Fox Business Senior Correspondent Charles Gasparino in an X post on Wednesday.
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