A new report backed by Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) makes a clear point for crypto investors. A future quantum computer could break the security that protects Bitcoin (BTC-USD) and other blockchains. The risk is not near-term, but the time to prepare is now.
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The report comes from a panel of leading cryptographers and academics. Their view is steady and measured. A machine strong enough to break today’s encryption is still years away. At the same time, the shift to safer systems could take just as long. That gap is what matters for markets.
Coinbase summed it up in plain terms. “The time to start preparing is now, not when it’s urgent.”
Where the Risk Sits Today
To start, most major blockchains rely on public and private keys. These keys secure wallets and approve transactions. Today’s systems are safe because it is too hard for a normal computer to reverse the math.
However, quantum computing changes that math. A known method could enable a powerful quantum machine to derive a private key from a public one. That means funds in exposed wallets could be taken.
Still, not all parts of crypto face the same risk. Mining systems, like Bitcoin’s proof of work, appear safe for now. The main issue lies with digital signatures that control access to funds.
The report notes that about 6.9 million Bitcoins are in wallets where the public key is already visible. That puts a large pool of assets at risk in a future quantum scenario.
At the same time, the threat depends on a major tech leap. Today’s quantum systems are too small and too unstable to run these attacks. Experts say at least two big advances are still needed.
A Slow and Costly Upgrade Path
Even so, the bigger issue is not the attack itself. It is the upgrade path.
New quantum-safe systems already exist. U.S. standards groups have approved several of them. However, they come with trade-offs. The new signatures are much larger and slower than the current ones.
For example, a standard crypto signature today is about 64 bytes. A quantum-safe version can be more than 2,000 bytes. That change could reduce network speed and raise costs across blockchains.
Because of this, the panel suggests a phased plan. One idea is a dual-key system. Wallets would hold both a current key and a quantum-safe key. For now, users will keep using the faster option. Later, networks could switch to the safer one if needed.
Meanwhile, another issue stands out. Many wallets may never upgrade. Some belong to users who lost access. Others may be tied to early holders who are no longer active.
That creates a policy choice. Networks could set a deadline and remove old funds. Or they could leave them and accept future risk. Each path has a market impact.
What It Means for Investors
For investors, the key point is timing and coordination. The threat is not near-term, but the shift will take years. That means the market will need clear plans well before any real risk appears.
Some networks are already moving. Ethereum has a detailed roadmap. Algorand has tested quantum-safe transactions. Others, like Bitcoin, are taking a slower path with smaller changes first.
In the end, this is a long-cycle issue. It is tied to deep tech progress, not short-term news. Still, it could shape how crypto systems evolve over the next decade.
We used TipRanks’ Comparison Tool to align notable blockchain stocks, providing an in-depth view of each stock and the broader blockchain sector.
