Costco March Sales to Climb, But Analysts Stay Split on COST Stock — Here’s Why

Analysts on Wall Street expect wholesale retailer Costco (COST) to report year-over-year growth in its March sales when the numbers are released next month. However, they differ on how this will support Costco’s shares, which have climbed about 16% since the start of the year.

Higher Gas Prices, Weaker Dollar to Aid Costco Sales

During the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which ended on February 15, Costco grew its net sales to $68.24 billion. The number rose by 9.1% from a year ago, even as the retailer’s total comparable sales — from its warehouses and e-commerce operations that have been active for at least a year — climbed 7.4%.

For March, Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman forecast that the Washington-based company will further expand its total sales by 7.7% compared to a growth of 6.4% during the same month a year ago. This is even as Feldman sees higher gas prices this month and a weaker U.S. dollar boosting traffic to Costco, with average customer spending rising by 5.7% compared to 0.3% last year.

Typically, more customers flock to Costco’s gas stations during energy price spikes in search of cheaper fuel, and that extra traffic often comes with more unplanned in-store purchases. As a result, Feldman reaffirmed his Outperform (Buy) rating on Costco’s shares and maintained his price target of $1,125, implying about 13% upside.

Why Guggenheim Remains Neutral on COST

By contrast, Guggenheim’s John Heinbockel refused to move his Hold rating on Costco’s shares and did not set a new price target. The five-star analyst sees the retailer’s total sales growing by a stronger 10% and anticipates even more solid sales growth over the next few months.

However, Heinbockel argued the upside from higher gas prices has already been priced in by investors. This is even though Costco has historically benefited from such trends, e.g., during the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

The analyst believes that this explains why Costco’s shares have outperformed the S&P 500 this month, adding that COST stock is now vulnerable to any medium-term shift in investors’ risk appetite.

Meanwhile, both ratings come as Costco continues to hunt for additional revenue sources. The company recently challenged partner retailers Celsius (CELH) and Freshpet (FRPT) with new product launches.

Is Costco Still a Good Stock to Buy?

Across Wall Street, analysts continue to hold a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Costco’s shares. This breaks down to 16 Buys, five Holds, and one Sell issued by 22 analysts over the past three months.

However, the average COST price target of $1,088.05 suggests about 9% upside.