TMC Earnings Call: Big Milestones, Bigger Risks

TMC the metals company Inc. ((TMC)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

TMC the metals company Inc. used its latest earnings call to paint a picture of strong strategic momentum tempered by sizeable near‑term financial strain. Management highlighted major permitting, commercial and technical milestones that move the project closer to production, but also acknowledged widening losses, rising costs and persistent regulatory uncertainty that keep risk levels high for investors.

NOAA permitting milestone and regulatory clarity

TMC has submitted the first consolidated application under NOAA’s revised DSHMRA process, and regulators deemed it “substantially compliant.” Management now expects a commercial recovery permit within 12 months, which would streamline the path to commercial seabed nodule recovery and reduce a key regulatory overhang.

Significant expansion of commercial area

The consolidated application expands TMC’s expected commercial recovery area from 25,000 km2 to about 65,000 km2. This larger, more contiguous footprint meaningfully increases exploration upside and resource optionality, potentially enhancing long‑term project scale and economics if permits are granted as planned.

Allseas commercial agreement and Hidden Gem system

TMC reached commercial terms with Allseas to develop and operate the Hidden Gem offshore collection system, designed for 3 million wet tonnes per year. Allseas is advancing long‑lead engineering on key components such as riser, launch and recovery systems and umbilicals, with a definitive agreement described as imminent.

Production system design and commissioning plan

Management reiterated its plan to commission a two‑collector model to support a staged ramp‑up of the Hidden Gem system. The integrated production system remains targeted for commissioning around Q4 2027, with initial production ramping into early 2028 starting with one collector before bringing the second online.

Onshore processing hub at Port of Brownsville

Onshore, TMC has secured an exclusive right over a potential lease at the Port of Brownsville in Texas for a 12 million tonne per year nodule industrial park. A master plan and pre‑feasibility study are underway, with a site‑specific bankable feasibility study targeted by end‑October and Mariana Minerals added to the owners team to accelerate work using AI‑driven approaches.

Royalty vehicle TMCR and capital optionality

The Metals Royalty Co. is set to list on Nasdaq under the ticker TMCR, holding a 2% gross royalty over the NORI area. TMC retains the right to buy back up to 75% of that royalty and also keeps a 25% equity stake, creating a flexible financing and strategic options vehicle around its core seabed assets.

Technical depth and environmental readiness

The environmental impact assessment is complete and the environmental impact statement is nearing completion, backed by more than 15 years of research and over 1 petabyte of data. TMC is publishing EIA findings and a video series, positioning itself as environmentally prepared and aiming to ease concerns around deep‑sea mining.

Liquidity and cash runway in the near term

TMC ended 2025 with $117.6 million in cash and expects roughly $110 million by March 31, 2026, while total liquidity including borrowing capacity was $162 million at year‑end. Management says it does not see an immediate need to tap public markets but plans to refresh shelf and ATM programs as a precautionary backstop.

Large project economics and valuation gap

The company’s studies indicate a combined NPV of about $23.6 billion and undiscounted revenue of roughly $369 billion, with projected EBITDA above $200 billion and first‑quartile cost positioning. Management argues that with the stock trading near 8% of NPV, successful permitting and execution could trigger a meaningful valuation re‑rating over time.

Strategic and defense‑linked positioning

TMC has joined the Defense Industrial Base Consortium and stresses alignment with U.S. and allied critical minerals agendas. It also highlights its status as the only seabed developer with SEC‑compliant mineral reserves, framing the project as strategically important within Western supply chains for battery and defense materials.

Widening net loss and higher operating costs

The company’s Q4 2025 net loss widened to $40.4 million, or $0.08 per share, compared with $16.1 million, or $0.04 per share, a year earlier. The step‑up was driven largely by sharply higher general and administrative costs and increased amortization of share‑based compensation awards.

Surge in G&A and share‑based compensation

G&A expenses jumped to $34.1 million in Q4 2025 from $8.1 million a year earlier, a roughly 321% increase. Management attributed this to accelerated amortization of equity awards granted in Q3 2025 as well as higher legal, consulting and personnel spending tied to the company’s expanded activities.

Rising exploration and evaluation spending

Exploration and evaluation expenses climbed to $10.6 million in Q4 2025, up from $8.3 million in the prior‑year quarter. The increase reflects higher share‑based compensation and ongoing technical work as TMC advances its resource delineation, engineering and environmental programs toward commercial readiness.

Ongoing cash burn in a pre‑revenue phase

Free cash outflow improved modestly to $11.5 million in Q4 2025 versus $13.8 million in the prior year, with full‑year outflows at $43.1 million. Despite some progress, TMC remains pre‑revenue after more than $700 million invested, underscoring that further funding will be needed over its multi‑year build‑out.

Growing liabilities and balance sheet volatility

Accounts payable and accrued liabilities reached $46 million, including $34 million owed to Allseas that can largely be settled in equity. Royalty liabilities rose by $131 million after economic study updates, and warrant liabilities increased with share price gains, adding non‑cash volatility to reported results and complicating headline metrics.

Regulatory and timeline uncertainty

While NOAA’s response is encouraging, TMC’s commercial recovery permit is not yet granted and remains subject to regulatory risk. The economics of its onshore facilities also depend on future federal and state support, with some potential funding tied to feasibility outcomes and permitting, leaving execution timelines exposed.

Persistent market discount versus peers

Management repeatedly pointed to what it sees as a pronounced market discount, with TMC trading at a small fraction of its estimated NPV and below peer averages. Executives acknowledged that this gap may persist until investors gain greater confidence in permit approvals, project financing and the practical execution of scaled production.

Guidance and forward‑looking outlook

Looking ahead, TMC expects NOAA to grant a commercial recovery permit within 12 months and continues to target Q4 2027 for commissioning the 3 million tonne per year Hidden Gem system, with production ramping into early 2028. Management also pointed to strong modeled economics, continued environmental work and a cash runway extending into 2026 as key pillars of its long‑term story.

TMC’s call underscored a classic high‑risk, high‑reward setup: regulatory traction, expanded resources and ambitious economics on one side, and rising losses, balance sheet complexity and permitting risk on the other. For investors, the stock remains a bet that the company can turn substantial technical and regulatory progress into actual commercial seabed production over the next several years.