SoFi Stock Forecast: Trending Upgrade Amid Volatile Pullback

SoFi (SOFI) stock has fallen 11.5% over the past week and 25.7% over the past month, but it remains up 42.3% over the past 12 months, reflecting a volatile yet ultimately positive year for shareholders. Despite the recent pullback, Wall Street’s analysts are signaling caution overall, with an “Hold” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $26.05 versus the last closing price of $21.76. That target suggests modest upside from current levels, even as investors digest sharp short‑term declines and reassess the fintech lender’s growth story.

Against this mixed backdrop, one prominent voice has turned more optimistic. Reginald Smith of J.P. Morgan upgraded SoFi stock to Buy (Overweight) on February 3, 2026, setting a $31 price target that implies roughly 40% upside from where the shares currently trade. Smith’s call stands out in a market where many fintech names are struggling with slowing growth and deposit outflows, yet he argues SoFi’s latest results and guidance point to a business that is still gaining momentum rather than stalling.

Smith’s upgrade comes on the heels of SoFi’s 4Q25 earnings, which he describes as record‑setting, with better‑than‑expected guidance for FY26 adjusted EBITDA. He highlights “undeniable” execution as SoFi continues to add members and deposits at a record pace, while many peers are flat or shrinking. Management is targeting 30% revenue growth and 34% adjusted EBITDA margins in FY26, plus around 4 million net new members to reach 17 million, after adding 3.5 million in 2025. Smith also points to medium‑term goals of more than 30% revenue CAGR and 38%–42% EPS CAGR from 2025 to 2028, well above his and the Street’s prior expectations.

In his view, the company’s valuation has become more attractive after the stock’s post‑earnings slide of about 10%, even as fundamentals improved. Smith notes that SoFi has scaled to generate material GAAP earnings from a loan portfolio approaching $40 billion, with additional upside from its technology platform and a rapidly expanding suite of financial services like SoFi Plus. While he previously held back due to concerns over fair value accounting assumptions and the risk of loan markdowns, he now sees that risk as lower given stabilizing policy rates and expectations for future cuts, as well as generally stable credit trends despite SoFi’s loan book more than doubling over three years.

Smith’s $31 December 2026 price target is built on a mix of valuation methods, including a roughly 2.0x price‑to‑tangible‑book multiple for the lending platform and about 7x 2027 sales for the tech platform and financial services business, translating to a blended 8.5x adjusted gross profit multiple and a 1.5x PEG on his 2027 EPS estimate. He argues this still represents a discount to other high‑growth fintechs moving into lending, and believes SoFi is positioned to become a leading digital bank—potentially the “American Express” of fintech—with one of the best operating track records in his coverage universe. This N‑star analyst ranks 1,894 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a 54.4% success rate and an average return of 11.6% per rating. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.