Resolute Mining Earnings Call Flags Growth and Risks

Resolute Mining Limited ((AU:RSG)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

Resolute Mining’s latest earnings call struck an upbeat tone, with management highlighting a year of solid delivery against guidance, strong cash generation, and a much stronger balance sheet. Exploration success and a highly attractive Doropo feasibility study underpinned a compelling growth story, even as executives cautioned about higher 2026 costs, heavy capex and ongoing country and permitting risks.

Production Meets Guidance as Q4 Output Ticks Higher

Resolute reported Q4 gold production of 66,000 ounces, about 6,000 ounces higher than in Q3, reflecting operational stability across its assets. Full‑year 2025 output reached 277,000 ounces, comfortably within the guidance range of 275,000 to 285,000 ounces and giving the company credibility on its production forecasting.

Cash Generation Fuels a Much Stronger Balance Sheet

Operating cash flow jumped to about $86 million in Q4, up from $70 million in Q3, taking full‑year operating cash flow to $314 million. Net cash at year‑end stood at $209 million, roughly $140 million higher than a year earlier, and total available liquidity exceeded $320 million, giving the group meaningful financial flexibility.

EBITDA and Revenue Advance with Higher Gold Prices

EBITDA for 2025 rose to $383 million, a 20% increase from $319 million in 2024, supported by strong margins and robust pricing. Revenue reached $863 million from sales of 259,000 ounces at an average realized price of $3,338 per ounce, with the company emphasizing that it remains fully unhedged to benefit from high gold prices.

Costs Ease in Q4 as Safety Performance Improves

Group all‑in sustaining costs fell to $1,877 per ounce in Q4, down from roughly $2,200 in Q3, a near 15% quarter‑on‑quarter reduction that helped underpin margins. For the full year, AISC averaged $1,843 per ounce in line with guidance, while the TRIFR safety metric improved to 1.87 from 1.95, signaling better safety performance on site.

Doropo DFS Points to a Transformational Growth Project

Management highlighted the updated Doropo DFS as a company‑changing opportunity, with reserves up 55% versus the prior study and life‑of‑mine production of about 2.2 million ounces over 13 years. The project shows a base‑case post‑tax NPV of $1.46 billion at $3,000 gold, AISC of $1,406 per ounce, a 49% IRR and a rapid payback, albeit with a hefty upfront capital bill of roughly $516 million.

Syama Stabilizes as SSCP Execution Stays on Track

Syama delivered Q4 production of 47,200 ounces and 176,300 ounces for the year, with the underground mine posting record monthly ore output above 250,000 tonnes. The Syama Sulfide Circuit Project remains on time and on budget, with Stage 1 commissioning targeted for Q2 2026 and full commissioning in Q3 2026, expected to lift production by around 5% to 10% from 2026 levels.

Mako Delivers Strong 2025 but Faces a Step‑Down

Mako produced 123,000 ounces in 2025 at a low AISC of $1,270 per ounce, supported by strong Q4 recoveries above 91% and higher throughput of 604,000 tonnes processed. Management is advancing life‑extension work at Tomboronkoto and Bantaco, with DFS and permitting underway and a 2026 Mako Life Extension Project capex budget of $10 million to $15 million.

Exploration Spend Adds New Resources and Optionality

Resolute spent around $25 million on exploration in 2025, translating into new resource additions across its portfolio and pipeline. Highlights included a maiden Le Debo resource of 643,000 ounces and about 2.2 million inferred ounces at the Kona permit in Côte d’Ivoire, with at least 20,000 metres of drilling and scoping studies planned through 2026.

Surge in 2026 Capex Raises Funding and Execution Risk

The company guided to group capex of $310 million to $360 million in 2026, up sharply from $118 million in 2025 as Doropo build‑out and Syama investment ramp up. While management argued that existing liquidity and potential project finance can cover the spend, investors were reminded that execution and funding discipline will be critical in the coming year.

Higher Cost Guidance Reflects Royalties and Inflation

Group AISC is expected to rise to $2,000 to $2,200 per ounce in 2026, about 14% higher at the midpoint than 2025, largely due to higher royalties at elevated gold prices and broader inflation. These increases will weigh on margins unless prices remain supportive, underscoring the importance of hitting cost and project schedules.

Supply‑Chain and Country Risks Remain a Watch Point

Management acknowledged that 2025 supply‑chain disruptions in Mali, including issues around explosives and fuel escorts, had materially affected earlier production at Syama. Although conditions have since stabilized and an explosives plant is planned for 2026, the company stressed that operations still depend on government coordination and secure convoys, leaving some residual risk.

Doropo Permitting and Timing Could Influence Value Realization

The Doropo timeline is partly at the mercy of permits, with elections having slowed progress and further approvals still required before construction. With project capex already increased to $516 million due to inflation and scope changes, management flagged that any delays or conditions attached to permits could impact both schedule and total cost.

Mako Set for Lower Output and Higher Unit Costs

For 2026, Mako’s production guidance has been cut to 55,000 to 65,000 ounces from 123,000 ounces in 2025, reflecting lower‑grade stockpiles being processed. AISC is expected to rise to $1,600 to $1,800 per ounce, driven by weaker grades, higher royalties and non‑cash stockpile impacts similar to those that already pushed Q4 reported costs higher.

Working Capital and VAT Still Drag on Cash Conversion

The company booked $66 million of VAT outflows in 2025, with refunds and mandates, especially in Mali, continuing to leak cash despite some recovery in Senegal. In addition, 31,000 ounces of unsold bullion worth about $135 million at year‑end slipped into January sales, depressing 2025 EBITDA and complicating year‑on‑year comparisons.

Guidance: Solid Production, Heavy Spend and Big Doropo Upside

For 2026, Resolute guided production of 250,000 to 275,000 ounces at group AISC of $2,000 to $2,200 per ounce, with Syama contributing up to 210,000 ounces and Mako up to 65,000. Total capex of $310 million to $360 million includes $170 million to $190 million for Doropo, whose DFS outlines 2.2 million ounces over 13 years and a 49% IRR, while Syama’s SSCP is scheduled for staged commissioning through Q3 2026.

Resolute’s earnings call painted a picture of a miner that has regained operational footing, strengthened its finances and lined up an attractive pipeline of growth projects. Investors will need to balance that positive momentum against looming 2026 capex and cost pressure, as well as jurisdictional and permitting risks, but the company’s tone suggested confidence that it can convert today’s robust gold market into lasting value.