Qualcomm Stock Forecast: Trending Cautious as Analysts Reassess

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock has fallen 10.1% over the past week, extended a tough month in which shares dropped 24.4%, and now sits 17.7% lower over the past year. Despite this recent weakness, Wall Street’s analysts remain moderately constructive: the 12‑month consensus points to a price target of $166.81 versus the last closing price of $136.30, with an overall Analyst Consensus of “ModerateBuy.” This implies analysts still see meaningful upside ahead, even as near‑term challenges weigh on sentiment.

Wall Street’s analysts are essentially cautious optimists on Qualcomm at this stage. The consensus 12‑month price target of $166.81 suggests upside from current levels, but the “ModerateBuy” label reflects a mix of bullish and more hesitant voices rather than a strong, unified buy call. Investors looking at Qualcomm today are weighing this potential recovery against very real headwinds in the handset market and the company’s exposure to shifts in smartphone demand and component supply.

One of the most influential recent moves came from analyst Christopher Rolland of Susquehanna International Group. Rolland downgraded QCOM to Hold on February 5, 2026, cutting his rating from Positive to Neutral and slashing his price target from $210.00 to $140.00. At a last price of $136.30, his new target implies only modest upside, underscoring his view that the stock may be fairly valued until visibility improves. This more cautious stance stands in contrast with the higher overall Street target, highlighting a growing divide between more conservative and more optimistic outlooks.

Rolland’s downgrade centers on several near‑term headwinds. He points to an ongoing memory shortage that is now hitting handset builds, with Qualcomm’s management guiding March handset revenue to about $6 billion, a roughly 23% quarter‑over‑quarter decline—the steepest since his coverage began. Management also expects normal seasonality in June, implying another high‑single‑digit percentage decline. On top of the memory issue, Rolland warns about modem share losses to Apple in upcoming phone launches and increased competition from internal applications processors at smartphone makers, including Chinese OEMs and examples like Xiaomi’s Xring. In aggregate, he is cutting his handset revenue forecast by about $3 billion for FY26, with further downside into FY27.

Despite this, Rolland still acknowledges longer‑term positives such as increased applications processor share, the ongoing 5G rollout, and RF market share gains, but he prefers to “move to the sidelines” until the current storm clears and a new catalyst emerges. His track record may carry weight with investors: this N‑star analyst ranks 222 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a success rate of 58.63% and an average return of 21.50% per rating. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.