Netflix Stock Trending as Analysts Eye Upside

(NFLX) stock has fallen about 3.1% over the past week, extended a roughly 8.7% decline over the last month and leaving shares down about 10.5% over the past year. Despite this weak recent performance, Wall Street’s analysts are leaning positive, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $115.94 versus a last closing price of $85.36. That implies meaningful upside if Netflix can execute on its growth plans and navigate integration risks tied to its planned Warner Bros. (WB) transaction.

Wall Street’s upbeat view is underscored by Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley, who reiterated his Buy (Overweight) rating on Netflix with a $110 price target on January 21, 2026. Swinburne’s target signals modest upside from current levels and is based on a bullish outlook for more than 20% adjusted EPS growth annually through 2028 as Netflix scales what he calls the world’s largest streaming business. He highlights Netflix’s combination of strong and improving returns, margin expansion, and continued innovation, particularly in advertising, where the company has rapidly built a business growing over 100% year‑on‑year in 2025 and projected to exceed $3 billion in revenue in 2026.

Swinburne acknowledges the WB transaction carries risk but argues the market has largely discounted these concerns, noting Netflix’s forward P/E has fallen from above 45x in mid‑2025 into the mid‑20s today. In his view, more than 80% of pro forma revenues will still come from streaming, while the deal may ultimately prove accretive to GAAP EPS and improve returns on content spending. He points out that although Netflix has trimmed estimates to reflect 2026 guidance that is slightly below prior expectations due to stepped‑up operating expenses and a 10% content expense growth rate, the company has a strong track record of meeting or beating its annual guidance. Swinburne, ranked 808 out of 11,984 analysts on TipRanks with a 54.0% success rate and 10.6% average return per rating, sees a compelling risk‑reward profile for investors with a longer time horizon.

Another bullish voice is Brian Pitz of BMO Capital Markets, who reiterated his Buy (Outperform) rating and adjusted his Netflix price target to $135 from $143 on January 21, 2026. Pitz notes that Netflix delivered solid fourth‑quarter 2025 results, with revenue and operating income coming in 0.7% and 2.6% above consensus, respectively, driven by strength in North America and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company’s initial 2026 revenue outlook of $50.7–$51.7 billion was slightly above consensus at the midpoint, although its 31.5% operating margin guidance fell short of the 32.7% consensus as Netflix plans to accelerate content amortization spending by 10% in 2026, up from 7% in 2025. While Netflix no longer regularly reports subscriber numbers, management emphasized that it has crossed the 325 million subscriber mark, with its audience approaching 1 billion people globally.

Pitz highlights advertising as a major growth engine, with Netflix expecting ad revenue to “roughly double” to $3 billion in 2026 after more than 250% growth in 2024, taking advertising to about 6% of total 2026 revenue and roughly a quarter of the expected $6 billion revenue increase for the year. He believes Netflix is still early in its advertising opportunity, citing the 96 billion hours watched on the platform in the second half of 2025 as evidence of the potential to build a massive ad business over time. While the company plans around $19 billion in content investments in 2026 and has shifted its $27.75 billion WB bid to an all‑cash offer—pausing share buybacks to build the necessary cash—Pitz still sees a path to operating margin expansion as scale efficiencies kick in and linear TV budgets continue to move online. Ranked 265 out of 11,984 analysts on TipRanks, with a 69.3% success rate and 16.7% average return per rating, Pitz argues Netflix remains the best‑positioned streaming player for long‑term share gains as the industry evolves. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.