Netflix Stock Trending: Analysts Split but Still Bullish

(NFLX) stock has slipped 1.46% over the past week and 6.40% over the past month, but it is still roughly flat over the past year with a 0.33% gain. Despite the recent softness, Wall Street’s analysts are moderately positive, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $124.80 versus the last closing price of $87.26. That implies meaningful upside potential over the coming year, though experts differ on just how far the stock can go and how smooth the road will be.

Jeffrey Wlodarczak of Pivotal Research Group, ranked 2,968 out of 11,984 analysts with a 51.36% success rate and 3.4% average return, reiterated a Hold rating on Netflix and cut his price target to $95.00, seeing limited upside from here. He views Netflix’s latest quarter as financially solid, with revenue and operating income slightly ahead of expectations and 2026 guidance in line with his model. However, Netflix disclosed that it had reached about 325 million subscribers in 4Q, roughly 10 million below his forecast, and he now expects slower long‑term subscriber growth, partially offset by higher average revenue per user. He also reduced his long‑term EBITDA valuation multiple from 20x to 17x, citing concerns about competitive pressures and changing consumer behavior.

Wlodarczak’s cautious stance centers on a structural worry: short‑form entertainment on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, X, YouTube Shorts and Snap is increasingly capturing attention, particularly among younger viewers, which he believes is fundamentally negative for long‑form streaming content. At the same time, free ad‑supported TV channels are gaining traction with lower‑income households, further pressuring Netflix’s growth engine. He also highlights risks tied to Netflix’s expensive deal for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming assets, including a long approval timeline, potential bidding wars, and regulatory and M&A uncertainty, all on top of sizeable content obligations and the company’s decision to stop regularly disclosing subscriber statistics. In his view, the current share price is reasonable but does not justify a more aggressive Buy rating.

On the more optimistic side, Benjamin Swinburne of Morgan Stanley, ranked 808 out of 11,984 with a 54.00% success rate and 10.6% average return, reiterated a Buy (Overweight) rating and set a $110.00 price target, implying solid upside from current levels. Swinburne’s thesis is that Netflix can grow adjusted EPS by more than 20% annually through 2028 as it scales what he calls the world’s largest streaming business, balancing continued investment with margin expansion. He points to Netflix’s rapidly growing advertising segment, which expanded over 100% year‑on‑year in 2025 and is projected to exceed $3 billion in revenue in 2026, as a key new engine of growth. While he acknowledges the risks around the Warner Bros. transaction, he believes much of that risk is already reflected in the stock’s valuation and sees a compelling risk‑reward profile for investors willing to hold for the longer term.

Adding further bullishness, Brian Pitz of BMO Capital Markets, one of the higher‑ranked experts at 265 out of 11,984 with a 69.25% success rate and an impressive 16.7% average return, reiterated his Buy (Outperform) rating and fine‑tuned his price target to $135.00 from $143.00. Pitz notes that Netflix delivered solid 4Q25 results, with revenue and operating income modestly beating consensus, and initial 2026 revenue guidance slightly above Wall Street expectations. While operating margin guidance of 31.5% came in below consensus due to faster content amortization growth, he emphasizes that Netflix plans to grow its ad business to roughly $3 billion in 2026, representing about 6% of total revenue and contributing a quarter of the expected revenue increase. With more than 325 million subscribers and nearly 96 billion hours watched in the second half of 2025, he argues Netflix is uniquely positioned to capture linear TV ad budgets moving online, even as it pauses share buybacks to build cash for the Warner Bros. deal. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.