Namib Minerals Balances Growth Plans And Rising Costs

Namib Minerals ((NAMM)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

Namib Minerals’ latest earnings call struck a tone of cautious optimism, as management highlighted strong pricing tailwinds and tight cost control that lifted adjusted EBITDA and preserved margins despite a sharp fall in gold output. At the same time, investors were reminded of sizable funding needs, higher unit costs and accounting volatility that leave execution risk firmly in focus.

Surging Gold Price Underpins Revenue and Margins

Namib Minerals realized an average gold price of $3,156 per ounce in 2025, a hefty 44% jump from $2,185 in 2024 that helped offset weaker volumes. This pricing strength was central to supporting revenue and margins, providing an important buffer as production temporarily stepped down.

Adjusted EBITDA Growth Signals Stronger Core Cash Generation

Adjusted EBITDA climbed 18% to $29.0 million in 2025 from $24.5 million a year earlier, after stripping out sizeable noncash and one‑time items. The improvement shows that underlying cash generation strengthened even as the company navigated operational transitions underground.

Revenue Stability and Resilient Gross Margins

Revenue held broadly steady at $82.6 million versus $85.9 million in 2024, demonstrating top‑line resilience despite lower output. Gross profit of $34.2 million translated to a 41.4% gross margin, underscoring the company’s ability to defend profitability in a lower‑volume environment.

Positive Cash Flow and Low Net Debt Support the Balance Sheet

Operating cash flow after interest and tax reached about $13.8 million, underlining a business still generating cash through the cycle. Net debt stood at only $3.3 million, leaving leverage manageable relative to current earnings and giving some flexibility ahead of planned growth investment.

Operational Discipline Keeps Costs in Check

Throughput at the mill stayed steady at 476,000 tonnes with recovery of 89% and a head grade of 1.9 grams per tonne, pointing to solid plant performance. Production costs declined in absolute terms to $37.0 million, down 4%, aided by disciplined headcount management and tighter control over power and other inputs.

Capacity Expansion on Track to Lift Throughput

The company is progressing a 36% expansion of mill capacity, moving from 40,500 to 55,000 tonnes per month with procurement and installation underway. Commissioning is targeted for the second half of 2026, and management expects the larger plant to support higher throughput and lower unit costs over time.

Redwing Dewatering Advances in Staged Development Plan

At Redwing, dewatering started on 29 January 2026 and has already pumped around 145,000 cubic meters, lowering the water level to about 7.8 meters. The program remains on schedule as part of an expected eight‑month effort through late 2026, feeding into a staged sequence of dewatering, studies and eventual development.

Guidance Points to Step‑Change in 2026 Performance

For 2026 the company is guiding to production of 28,000 to 31,500 ounces, implying a 12% to 26% increase from 2025 levels. All‑in sustaining costs are forecast between $2,400 and $2,700 per ounce, with adjusted EBITDA of $50 to $62 million, assuming a gold price of $4,500 per ounce.

Production Slump in 2025 Weighs on Unit Economics

Production at How Mine fell to about 25,000 ounces in 2025 from 36,743 ounces in 2024, a roughly 32% decline as mining shifted between ore bodies and underground development progressed. This volume reset hurt unit economics and sets a lower base year for the company’s planned recovery in 2026.

Per‑Ounce Cash Costs Jump on Lower Volumes

Cash costs per ounce rose sharply to about $1,653 from $1,150 in 2024, an increase of roughly 44% as fixed costs were spread over fewer ounces. Management stressed that the spike was driven by volume rather than a loss of cost control, with expectations that higher future throughput will pull unit costs back down.

Heavy Capital Needs for Redwing and Mazowe Restarts

Management flagged a substantial $300 million to $400 million capital requirement to restart Redwing and Mazowe, to be phased over time. While these projects underpin longer‑term growth, they introduce notable financing and execution risk that investors will watch closely.

Noncash Listing and SPAC Impacts Distort Reported Earnings

Reported net earnings were heavily affected by noncash items tied to the SPAC listing, including a $65.4 million one‑off listing expense and large fair‑value swings in earnouts and warrants. These accounting effects also produced a shareholders’ deficit of $39.3 million, complicating headline financials while not reflecting underlying operations.

Guidance Hinges on Elevated Gold Price Assumptions

Management’s 2026 outlook is built on a gold price assumption of $4,500 per ounce, significantly above the 2025 realized level. This leaves guidance sensitive to future gold price moves, meaning any pullback in the metal could materially affect targeted margins and cash flow.

Financing Strategy Still Taking Shape

Executives said they are pursuing non‑dilutive structures and development finance institution funding to support growth, but no firm commitments were announced on the call. The absence of concrete deals keeps uncertainty around timing, cost of capital and potential shareholder dilution.

Narrower Exploration Footprint After DRC Retrenchment

Namib Minerals allowed 13 exploration licenses in the DRC to lapse after concluding they were not the best use of capital in the near term. The move sharpens capital allocation but also narrows the company’s pipeline of exploration options outside its core assets.

Project Timelines Carry Execution and Timing Risk

Redwing’s multi‑stage plan, including an eight‑month dewatering effort and definitive feasibility work expected over 12 to 18 months, pushes meaningful new production into the medium to long term. Timely delivery of these milestones will be critical if the company is to realize its growth ambitions without cost overruns.

Forward Outlook Anchored in Growth but Dependent on Gold

Looking ahead, management’s guidance calls for a return to production growth with 28,000 to 31,500 ounces in 2026 and adjusted EBITDA of $50 to $62 million, assuming a supportive gold price. They also expect C1 cash costs to normalize toward $1,400 to $1,650 per ounce and sustaining capex to fall to $5 million to $6 million annually as the mill expansion and Redwing dewatering advance.

Namib Minerals’ earnings call painted a company balancing solid operational execution and stronger cash generation against elevated unit costs and sizable growth funding needs. Investors now face a story where higher gold prices, disciplined project delivery and successful financing will decide whether today’s cautious optimism turns into sustained value creation over the next few years.