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La Française des Jeux earnings call: cash rich, tax squeezed

La Française des Jeux earnings call: cash rich, tax squeezed

La Francaise des Jeux SA ((FR:FDJU)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

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La Française des Jeux SA’s latest earnings call painted a picture of solid fundamentals under pressure from rising taxes and regulatory shocks. Management highlighted record free cash flow, robust lottery momentum and faster-than-planned cost savings, yet acknowledged that new levies, platform migration costs and weakness in the online betting and gaming arm are weighing on near-term profitability.

Strong cash generation and resilient core profitability

FDJ reported group GGR of about €8.7bn, revenue of roughly €3.7bn and recurring EBITDA of €902m, implying a solid 24.5% margin. Free cash flow hit a record €782m, up 16% year on year, with an 87% EBITDA‑to‑cash conversion and net debt trimmed to €1.7bn, or around 1.9 times recurring EBITDA.

Lottery and retail sports betting remain the profit engine

The LSF segment, covering the French lottery and retail sports betting, continued to anchor group performance, with GGR up 3% to €6.9bn and revenue up 1% to €2.5bn despite more than €28m of extra French taxes. Lottery GGR and revenue grew 3% and 2% respectively, lifting LSF EBITDA to €913m with a 36% margin, while online lottery rose 8% and now exceeds 15% of lottery sales.

OBG integration advances and operational tools scale up

In online betting and gaming, the integration of Kindred has been completed, with 32Red and Unibet now running on FDJ’s proprietary platforms in the U.K. Marketing automation has ramped up so that over 70% of direct campaigns are now automated in most markets, and optimized customer service is expected to handle about 20% more interactions while cutting costs by more than 10% in 2025.

Performance plan beats targets and is scaled higher

FDJ’s performance plan significantly outperformed initial goals, delivering around €50m of savings in 2025 versus a €20m target. The group has now lifted its medium‑term ambition to €150m of recurring efficiencies by end‑2028, implying about €100m of cumulative benefits by 2026, with total costs already down roughly 2% despite only modest GGR growth.

Dividend increase underlines commitment to shareholder returns

The board has proposed lifting the dividend to €2.10 per share, in line with a payout ratio of about 75% to 80% of adjusted net income. Adjusted net profit was broadly stable at €487m versus €490m a year earlier, signalling that underlying earnings power remains intact even as reported profit is depressed by nonrecurring accounting charges.

International lottery margin recovery and portfolio pruning

The international lottery business showed notable improvement, with EBITDA rising to €38m and the margin climbing to 22.5% from 13.1%, helped by the sale of Sporting Group and selective portfolio pruning. Payment & Services has been refocused on profitable offerings, while the Nirio investment is positioned as a lever for future growth in adjacent services.

Ongoing investment in technology, AI and sustainability

Capital expenditure reached €172m, largely directed toward IT platforms, AI‑driven marketing, customer operations and responsible gaming tools such as FDJ Protect and Crucial Compliance systems. On the ESG front, FDJ highlighted a social and economic contribution above €7bn in France, including more than €4.8bn in public levies, over €1bn paid to retailers and a top‑tier carbon rating backed by dedicated restoration funding.

Rising tax and regulatory drag across key markets

Management flagged a broad wave of tax increases in France, the Netherlands, Romania, Sweden and other markets that cut net gaming revenue by about 3% in 2025. These changes shaved more than €50m off revenue and EBITDA in the year and are expected to have a cumulative calendar effect of roughly €140m on 2026 NGR and more than €150m on EBITDA once advertising taxes are included.

OBG revenue decline exposes high fixed‑cost base

The OBG division saw GGR fall 8% and revenue drop 12% to €908m, with around €23m of tax increases contributing to the downturn. With roughly two thirds of its costs fixed, the segment’s current EBITDA margin contracted sharply to 20% from 28.5%, underscoring the negative operating leverage that emerges when activity slows in key online betting markets.

Impairments and one‑offs depress reported net income

Reported net income slumped to €176m from €399m, driven largely by nonrecurring items totaling €199m, including €166m of purchase price allocation impairments and €28m of restructuring charges. Gross PPA amortization of about €200m, or €170m net, further weighed on the bottom line, though these items are noncash and do not affect FDJ’s strong cash generation.

Regulatory shock in the Netherlands hits legal market

Management criticized rapid and poorly calibrated regulatory changes in the Netherlands, which they say have shrunk the legal market by roughly a quarter. The company argued this has pushed players toward offshore operators, reducing taxed and regulated volumes and ultimately undermining both industry economics and effective player protection.

Short‑term IT and migration costs pressure margins

IT spending increased by about 4% at group level and 17% in OBG, reflecting heavy investment in platform migrations and proprietary technology. While these projects increase fixed costs and squeeze margins in the short term, management framed them as essential to long‑term efficiency, scalability and product control across markets.

Recurring EBITDA down on taxes and weaker OBG

Group recurring EBITDA of €902m was around 6% lower than the restated 2024 figure, with the decline mainly tied to higher gaming taxes and softer activity in key OBG geographies. The combination of regulatory pressure, elevated IT spend and OBG’s operating deleverage explains why debt reduction, though positive, fell slightly short of earlier internal expectations.

Guidance: stable margins despite tax burden and OBG shift

Looking to 2026, FDJ targets group GGR growth with a stronger second half and expects OBG to grow GGR faster than LSF even though new taxes should keep revenue growth broadly similar. Management aims to hold recurring EBITDA margins around 2025 levels while delivering about €50m of additional performance plan savings, maintaining capex near 4% to 5% of revenue and keeping free cash flow conversion above 80% alongside a rising dividend.

FDJ’s earnings call showed a business with powerful lottery cash flows and accelerating efficiency gains, but also one navigating heavy tax and regulatory cross‑currents. For investors, the story hinges on whether cost savings, tech investments and the OBG integration can offset fiscal headwinds and restore growth in online gaming, while the richer dividend provides some compensation during this transition phase.

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