Kaspi.kz Earnings Call: Growth Intact Amid Headwinds

Kaspi.kz JSC Sponsored ADR RegS ((KSPI)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

Kaspi.kz’s latest earnings call struck a cautiously optimistic note, as management highlighted strong underlying growth in payments, marketplace and fintech despite a year marked by external shocks. Executives pointed to robust consumer engagement, rapid e‑commerce and grocery expansion, and product innovation, while acknowledging that higher rates, taxes and smartphone weakness weighed on reported net income.

Solid Underlying Profit and Revenue Growth

Kaspi.kz reported underlying net income growth of about 18% for FY 2025 when stripping out external headwinds, with consolidated net profit up roughly 10% once these factors are included. In its core Kazakhstan business, underlying revenue rose 15% in Q4 and 19% for the full year, underscoring resilient demand despite macro and regulatory pressure.

Dividend Resumption Signals Confidence

The board proposed resuming dividends at KZT 850 per ADS, which management described as sustainable and consistent with its capital allocation priorities. The payout is designed to coexist with continued investment in growth initiatives, including the integration and scaling of Turkiye-based Hepsiburada within the broader Kaspi platform.

Payments Engine Maintains Momentum

In Kazakhstan, payments total payment volume increased 14% in Q4 and 19% for FY 2025, supported by a 12% rise in transactions in Q4 and 14% for the year. Payments revenue grew 7% in Q4 and 12% for the year, while net income from payments advanced 4% in Q4 and 13% across 2025, reflecting a solid but slightly moderated profitability profile.

Marketplace Demand and Take-Rate Gains

Marketplace demand remained strong, with purchases up about 34% in Q4 and 35% for the year, while monetization improved through higher take rates. The e‑commerce take rate reached record levels at roughly 13.1% in Q4 and 12.7% for FY 2025, helped by surging advertising revenue, which grew around 45% in Q4 and 64% for the full year.

E‑Commerce and Grocery Drive Acceleration

Kaspi’s e‑commerce business delivered standout growth, with purchases rising roughly 70% in Q4 and 83% for FY 2025, and grocery emerging as a key driver. Grocery GMV climbed about 53% for the year, while overall e‑commerce GMV was up 9% in Q4 and 16% for the year, or a much stronger 27% when excluding the weak smartphone category.

Hepsiburada Builds Scale in Turkiye

Hepsiburada showed improving engagement, with Q4 order growth around 19% and engaged consumers up nearly 29% in the most recent period, indicating traction in the Turkish market. Management reiterated plans to continue targeted investments while steering the business toward EBITDA breakeven in 2026, embedding Turkiye as a core growth pillar.

Product Innovation and Consumer Adoption

Product innovation remains central, highlighted by the launch of Kaspi Alaqan, a pay‑by‑palm solution that quickly gained about 0.5 million registered customers in Almaty and roughly 6,000 accepting merchants. Within around 90 days, transactions using the technology reached about 10% penetration among connected stores, while Kaspi’s mobile app and brand stayed firmly in top positions.

Fintech Growth with Stable Risk Metrics

Kaspi’s fintech portfolio expanded robustly, with the loan book growing around 27% in Q4 and 31% for FY 2025, and deposits up 16% in Q4 and 18% for the year. Fintech revenue increased 19% in Q4 and 20% for the year, with yields steady near 24% and cost of risk at roughly 2.2%, indicating disciplined risk management amid expansion.

Smartphone Shock Hits GMV

A sharp downturn in smartphones was a major drag on marketplace performance in 2025, with smartphone GMV down about 24% in Q4 and materially weaker through the year. Management expects this category to return to growth from January 2026, but stressed that the Q4 slump significantly depressed both overall marketplace and e‑commerce GMV.

Macro and Regulatory Headwinds on Fintech

Higher interest rates, increased national bank reserve requirements and new tax rules significantly affected fintech profitability and overall net income in 2025. A new bank tax effective early 2026 is expected to lift the effective tax rate by roughly 200 basis points, further tightening the operating environment for the financial services segment.

Consolidated Profit Pressure from Reinvestment

When including Turkiye and stepped-up investments in Hepsiburada, consolidated net income for the combined business was effectively flat year on year at around 1.1 trillion tenge. Management framed this as a deliberate trade‑off, accepting short‑term profitability pressure to build a larger, more diversified regional platform.

Take-Rate and Product-Mix Dilution

In payments, Kaspi saw mild take‑rate attrition as lower‑margin B2B and Kaspi Pay products grew faster, diluting overall yields. On the marketplace, a shift toward lower-ticket, frequently purchased items increased the share of delivery costs in each order, adding pressure to margins even as volumes rose.

Delivery Costs Squeeze Marketplace Margins

Low-ticket, high-frequency categories such as groceries and repeat items pushed delivery costs higher, compressing profitability in the marketplace segment. To counter this, Kaspi raised delivery prices at the start of the year, yet Q4 marketplace net income still declined about 7%, reflecting both cost pressures and smartphone weakness.

Credit Quality and Coverage Evolution

Credit quality metrics showed an NPL ratio of around 6%, partly because better collections leave more loans classified as nonperforming rather than written off. Coverage levels declined as secured car loans and merchant financing gained share in the portfolio, and management expects coverage ratios to remain broadly around current levels.

Interest-Rate Uncertainty Remains a Wildcard

Management emphasized that current guidance assumes no easing in interest rates, describing any future cuts as potential upside rather than a base case. Elevated rates introduce volatility and uncertainty to bottom-line forecasts, particularly for the fintech unit, which is sensitive to funding costs and regulatory burdens.

Forward-Looking Guidance and Strategic Priorities

For 2026, Kaspi provided consolidated guidance including Kazakhstan and Turkiye, targeting roughly 20% marketplace GMV growth and an adjusted EBITDA margin around 5% on a 2025 base of about 1.6 trillion tenge. The company expects e‑commerce to rise from about 54% to 60% of marketplace GMV, aims for Hepsiburada EBITDA breakeven in 2026 alongside continued targeted investment, and plans to resume sustainable dividends.

Kaspi.kz’s earnings call painted a picture of a platform still growing briskly beneath a layer of macro and regulatory headwinds that distorted near‑term results. For investors, the story hinges on whether smartphone demand normalizes, rates stabilize and Hepsiburada turns to breakeven on schedule, potentially unlocking the stronger earnings power implied by today’s underlying metrics.