First Watch Raises 2026 EBITDA Outlook Amid Strong Growth

First Watch Restaurant Group ( (FWRG) ) has shared an announcement.

On May 5, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group reported first‑quarter 2026 results showing total revenues up 17.3% to $331.0 million and system‑wide sales up 13.8% versus a year earlier, driven in part by 16 net new system‑wide openings that brought its estate to 648 restaurants across 32 states. Same‑restaurant sales grew 2.8% despite a 2.0% decline in traffic, while restaurant‑level operating profit margin improved to 18.5% and Adjusted EBITDA rose to $27.8 million, even as the company’s net loss widened to $2.7 million.

Management highlighted continued rapid unit growth and margin expansion as support for its long‑term strategy and, on the back of Q1 performance, reaffirmed its 2026 top‑line outlook while raising the low end of its full‑year Adjusted EBITDA guidance range to $133 million to $140 million. The company also reiterated expectations for 12% to 14% revenue growth and 59 to 63 net new restaurants in fiscal 2026, underlining confidence in demand for its daytime dining concept despite softer traffic and signaling ongoing capital investment of up to $160 million in new units and remodels.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on FWRG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, FWRG is a Neutral.

The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance—rapid top-line scaling but thin profitability, negative recent free cash flow, and still-elevated leverage. The latest earnings call is a positive offset with constructive 2026 growth/EBITDA guidance and strong new-unit performance, while valuation is demanding (high P/E) and corporate leadership changes add execution risk. Technically, momentum has improved short term but remains below longer-term trend levels.

To see Spark’s full report on FWRG stock, click here.

More about First Watch Restaurant Group

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates in the U.S. restaurant industry as a leading “Daytime Dining” concept focused on made‑to‑order breakfast, brunch and lunch. The company emphasizes a chef‑driven, seasonally rotating menu and community engagement, and has grown its footprint to more than 640 restaurants across 32 states, primarily through company‑owned units supplemented by franchises.

Positioned as a premium casual breakfast and brunch brand, First Watch targets consumers seeking elevated morning and mid‑day dining experiences, leveraging menu innovation, awards recognition and a strong workplace culture to differentiate itself in a competitive segment dominated by national chains and regional players.

Average Trading Volume: 1,763,419

Technical Sentiment Signal: Sell

Current Market Cap: $752.4M

See more data about FWRG stock on TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.