First Watch Issues 2026 Outlook Amid CFO Retirement

First Watch Restaurant Group ( (FWRG) ) just unveiled an update.

First Watch Restaurant Group reported that in fiscal 2025, ended December 28, total revenues rose 20.3% to $1.2 billion and system-wide sales climbed to $1.4 billion, driven by 3.6% same-restaurant sales growth, modest positive traffic, and the opening of 64 new restaurants across 23 states to reach 633 locations. Despite higher Adjusted EBITDA and net income, income from operations and restaurant-level margins declined, while Q4 2025 saw sharply higher profitability, and on February 20, 2026 the company’s long-serving CFO Mel Hope notified his intention to retire as First Watch issued a 2026 outlook calling for double-digit revenue growth, up to 63 new units and continued expansion of its digital marketing platform.

The company’s 2026 guidance projects 1%–3% same-restaurant sales growth, 12%–14% total revenue growth and Adjusted EBITDA of $132 million to $140 million, supported by planned capital expenditures of up to $160 million primarily for new builds and remodels. Management reiterated long-term targets for low double-digit annual unit growth and mid-teens restaurant sales and Adjusted EBITDA growth, underscoring a strategy to scale the concept toward a potential footprint of more than 2,200 U.S. restaurants while managing leadership succession in the finance function.

The most recent analyst rating on (FWRG) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Watch Restaurant Group stock, see the FWRG Stock Forecast page.

Spark’s Take on FWRG Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, FWRG is a Neutral.

The score is held back primarily by weakening profitability, higher leverage, and negative free cash flow, alongside bearish technical signals and an extremely high P/E. These are partially offset by a positive earnings call with strong growth, improving restaurant-level margins, and supportive forward guidance.

To see Spark’s full report on FWRG stock, click here.

More about First Watch Restaurant Group

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is a U.S. daytime dining restaurant operator focused on made-to-order breakfast, brunch and lunch, with a chef-driven, seasonally rotating menu and a mix of company-owned and franchised locations across dozens of states. The brand emphasizes fresh ingredients, signature items such as Lemon Ricotta Pancakes and Million Dollar Bacon, and community giving tied to kids’ meals.

Average Trading Volume: 1,246,778

Technical Sentiment Signal: Sell

Current Market Cap: $974.1M

For a thorough assessment of FWRG stock, go to TipRanks’ Stock Analysis page.