Excelerate Energy Signals Strong Growth in 2026

Excelerate Energy, Inc. Class A ((EE)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

Excelerate Energy struck a notably upbeat tone on its latest earnings call, highlighting record 2025 results, robust operational performance and a step-change in expected earnings power for 2026. Management acknowledged higher capital spending and some execution risk, but insisted these are manageable given strong liquidity, low leverage and the attractive returns expected from the Iraq project.

Record Earnings and Strong Year-Over-Year Growth

Excelerate reported record 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $449 million, up about $100 million or roughly 30% from the prior year. Management framed this jump as evidence that the FSRU-led business model is scaling effectively, with stable contracted revenues and limited volatility despite a choppy global LNG backdrop.

2026 EBITDA Guidance Points to Further Upside

For 2026, the company guided adjusted EBITDA to a range of $515 million to $545 million, with a midpoint of $530 million, implying more than $80 million of growth over 2025. The uplift is driven by a full-year contribution from the Jamaica platform, a partial contribution from Iraq and incremental earnings from new LNG supply arrangements.

Reliability Underpins Predictable Cash Flows

Operationally, Excelerate delivered enterprise-wide reliability above 99.9% in 2025, its best performance to date. Management stressed that this high reliablity is critical for maintaining predictable cash flows, supporting long-term contracts and reinforcing customer confidence in the company’s FSRU services.

Jamaica Integration Delivers Stable Cash and Resilience

The acquisition of the Jamaica LNG-to-power platform closed in May 2025 and was fully integrated by the fourth quarter. The asset is already providing stable contracted cash flows and, notably, operations remained resilient through Hurricane Melissa, which caused only modest financial and operational disruption.

Iraq Project Advances with Attractive Economics

Newbuild Hull 3407 has completed sea trials and is moving through final commissioning, with delivery expected in early second quarter 2026. The integrated Iraq terminal is scheduled to begin operations in the third quarter and is projected to earn at least a roughly 5x EBITDA build multiple at minimum contracted volumes, with upside if offtake ramps.

Revised Iraq Capital Costs Still Viewed as Manageable

Total capital for the Iraq terminal, including the FSRU, has been revised upward to an estimated $520 million to $550 million, reflecting jetty reinforcement work and scope refinements. The all-in cost of the FSRU remains about $370 million, with a sizable remaining payment of roughly $220 million due in the second quarter of 2026.

Balance Sheet Strength Supports Investment Plan

At year-end 2025, Excelerate carried about $1.3 billion of total debt including leases, against $538 million of cash and full availability on a $500 million revolver. Net debt stood near $730 million and trailing net leverage was a modest 1.6 times, giving management confidence it can fund committed projects while staying within conservative credit metrics.

Dividend Initiation and Share Buybacks Signal Confidence

The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share, or $0.32 on an annual basis, and set a target for low double-digit annual dividend growth beginning in 2026. In addition, a $75 million share repurchase authorization was put in place in December 2025, reflecting management’s view that the equity remains an attractive use of capital.

Growth Capital and Maintenance Spending Step Up

Excelerate expects 2026 committed growth capital of $370 million to $400 million, including about $220 million remaining for Hull 3407 and $140 million to $170 million for the Iraq terminal. Maintenance capital expenditure is projected to rise to $100 million to $110 million, largely due to a cluster of dry docks required to sustain the fleet’s reliability.

Supply Deals and Contract Uplifts Enhance Earnings Power

Back-to-back LNG supply agreements with QatarEnergy and Petrobangla are expected to provide incremental EBITDA uplift over the next several years. Management also pointed to potential upside from renegotiation and redeployment of the Express FSRU starting in 2027, though commercial specifics are still being discussed.

Fourth Quarter Softness Reflects Timing and Storm Effects

In the fourth quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA came in at $113 million with adjusted net income of $40 million, down sequentially from the third quarter. The decline was attributed mainly to the timing of Atlantic Basin cargo deliveries, higher business development spending and slightly weaker Jamaica margins following Hurricane Melissa.

Hurricane Melissa and Higher Interest Costs Weigh on Results

Hurricane Melissa carried an estimated EBITDA impact of about $6 million in the quarter, including roughly $2 million of additional SG&A associated with support and community-focused spending. Net income growth was also partially offset by higher interest expense tied to the company’s 2030 notes, adding some financing pressure to the earnings profile.

Front-Loaded Cash Outflows and Execution Risks

The company highlighted that growth capital is heavily front-loaded in 2026, with major payments for Hull 3407 and Iraq construction concentrated in the first half of the year. Management acknowledged this timing, along with ongoing negotiations around future FSRU conversions and redeployments, creates some near-term execution and liquidity risk.

Forward Guidance Highlights Growth and Capital Discipline

Looking ahead, Excelerate expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $515 million to $545 million, supported by fully ramped Jamaica operations, partial Iraq contributions and gains from new LNG supply deals. Despite elevated growth and maintenance capital needs, management emphasized that strong reliability, low leverage and a balanced capital return framework position the company to grow earnings while maintaining financial discipline.

Excelerate’s earnings call painted a picture of a company in transition from pure asset deployment to a more mature, cash-generating platform with visible growth. While investors will need to watch execution in Iraq, rising capex and commercial negotiations on future redeployments, the combination of record results, upbeat guidance and new shareholder returns suggests a constructive outlook for the stock.