CTP N.V. Earnings Call Highlights Growth Momentum

CTP N.V. ((NL:CTPNV)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

CTP N.V.’s latest earnings call struck a distinctly upbeat tone, with management highlighting robust rental growth, record leasing, and sizeable portfolio revaluations that more than offset pockets of pressure from higher vacancies, development delays, and temporarily elevated leverage. Executives framed current headwinds as largely timing and scale-related, while emphasizing strong liquidity and an upgraded credit rating as key supports.

Strong rental income and net rental growth

Net rental income climbed 14.1% year-on-year to EUR 738 million, while annualized rental income advanced 13% to EUR 840 million, underscoring solid cash flow momentum. Management stressed that a large portion of this income is contracted, providing a visible and “locked-in” growth profile as they look ahead to 2026.

Record leasing and development activity

The group signed 2.3 million square meters of new leases in 2025, or 2.1 million square meters excluding Italy, pointing to sustained demand for its logistics and industrial space. Development activity was also strong, with a record 1.3 million square meters completed in 2025, though roughly 150,000 square meters slipped into the first quarter of 2026.

Like-for-like rental growth and rent reversion

Like-for-like rental growth improved to 4.5% in 2025 from 4.0% in 2024, driven by indexation and successful rent reversion on expiring leases. New leases were signed at rents around 4% above 2024 levels, with management noting that in some cases the same buildings achieved increases closer to 5% versus the prior year.

Strong earnings and EPS progression

Company-specific adjusted EPRA earnings rose 11.3% year-on-year to EUR 405 million, reflecting the uplift from higher rents and completions. Adjusted EPS reached EUR 0.85, a 6.3% increase, falling just EUR 0.01 short of guidance due to the timing of delayed completions into early 2026.

Significant portfolio revaluation and GAV growth

CTP reported more than EUR 1.1 billion in portfolio revaluation gains for 2025, of which EUR 422 million came from construction and leasing progress on developments. Another EUR 649 million stemmed from revaluation of the standing portfolio, pushing gross asset value to EUR 18.5 billion, up 15.6% versus 2024.

NAV and shareholder total returns

EPRA NTA per share increased 12.8%, rising from EUR 18.08 to EUR 20.39, highlighting strong value creation for shareholders. Over the past 12 months, total accounting return reached 16.1%, reflecting both income and capital appreciation across the portfolio.

High occupancy, strong collections and tenant mix

Occupancy ended the year at roughly 93%, stable despite ongoing development deliveries and refurbishments across the portfolio. Rent collection remained exceptional at 99.7%, and around 70% of new business came from existing clients, indicating a loyal tenant base and supporting retention-driven growth.

Large land bank and geographic expansion

CTP emphasized its development runway, with a land bank exceeding 33 million square meters either on-balance sheet or under option across its footprint. Italy is a key growth focus with more than 8 million square meters of land, over 200,000 square meters under construction that is 70% pre-leased, and a goal of reaching about 1 million square meters of lettable space in that market within five years.

Robust funding, credit upgrades and liquidity

Funding conditions remained favorable, as highlighted by an S&P upgrade to investment-grade BBB and a positive outlook from Moody’s. The company issued a 4.5-year bond at a 92 basis point spread with orders exceeding EUR 4 billion, while maintaining around EUR 2 billion of liquidity and a 3.3% average cost of debt.

Clear 2026 guidance and midterm growth ambition

For 2026, management guided development completions of 1.4–1.7 million square meters, including roughly 200,000 square meters in Italy, and expects annualized rental income to climb toward EUR 1.0 billion. They project company-specific adjusted EPRA EPS of EUR 1.01–1.03, implying 9–11% growth, and reiterated a medium-term ambition to double the portfolio to 30 million square meters with about 15% annual top-line growth.

Leverage and LTV slightly above target

Loan-to-value ended the year at 46.1%, modestly above the stated 40–45% corridor, largely due to the Italy acquisition and related investments. Normalized net debt-to-EBITDA stood at roughly 9.3 times with an interest coverage ratio of 2.5 times, metrics management expects to improve as leasing, revaluations, and earnings growth catch up with recent expansion.

Development delays and timing-related EPS impact

Some projects originally scheduled for 2025 were delayed into the first quarter of 2026, shifting about 150,000 square meters of completions. This timing effect contributed to the slight EUR 0.01 EPS miss versus guidance and may continue to cause quarter-to-quarter volatility, although management stressed that demand and leasing remained intact.

Absolute vacancy and refurbishment-related vacancies

The company reported around 1 million square meters of vacant space in absolute terms, a figure that reflects both portfolio scale and development-driven vacancy. Several assets in Germany that were acquired and now require refurbishment are contributing to temporary vacancies and slower conversion of space into income.

Quarterly variability in pre-let and regional rent softness

CTP started the year with pre-let levels around 30%, within its 30–35% target, and ultimately delivered 88% pre-let in 2025, above the 80–90% goal at completion. However, management acknowledged quarter-to-quarter variability in pre-letting and noted softer new-lease rents in markets like Bulgaria, Serbia, and Hungary, with Romania roughly flat.

Decline in tenant retention rate

Tenant retention slipped to roughly 81% in 2025 from about 84% in the previous year, pointing to a mild deterioration in renewal trends. Even so, this outcome sits within management’s expected 80–85% range and is partially offset by strong leasing to both new and existing customers.

Near-term cost ramp from market entries

The push into Italy, alongside the early-stage team build-out in Vietnam, is driving higher administrative and start-up costs in the near term. Management cautioned that while these investments may weigh on bottom-line growth timing in 2026, they are expected to support meaningful top-line contributions over the coming years.

Accounting change implications — capitalizing interest

CTP changed its accounting policy to capitalize interest, aligning with common practice among listed real estate peers, which improves reported yields on cost by roughly 30 basis points. This adjustment affects EPS comparability and will likely steer the dividend payout ratio toward the lower end of the historical 70–80% range.

Refinancing and marginal cost risk

The company faces a modest bond maturity of EUR 275 million in September 2026 and will eventually refinance low-coupon debt carrying rates such as 0.625%, implying a slightly higher marginal cost of capital. While management expects any EPS impact from refinancing to be limited to a few cents, investors will watch how funding costs evolve relative to the 3.3% current average.

Forward-looking guidance and growth trajectory

Looking ahead, CTP is targeting 1.4–1.7 million square meters of completions in 2026, a yield on cost around 10%, and annualized rental income approaching EUR 1.0 billion, underpinned by a reversionary yield near 6.9%. The company aims to bring leverage back within its 40–45% LTV band, maintain liquidity of about EUR 2 billion, keep marginal funding below 3.5%, and gradually build its portfolio to 30 million square meters by 2030 while sustaining dividend payouts in the 70–80% range.

CTP’s earnings call painted a picture of a growth platform that is scaling rapidly yet still grappling with the usual growing pains of vacancy, timing, and leverage management. For investors, the key takeaway is that strong rental growth, robust development returns, and solid funding access appear to outweigh the manageable near-term risks, leaving the medium-term story firmly tilted toward expansion and rising earnings.