Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Signals Breakout Year

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. ((TSE:AYA)) has held its Q4 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. delivered a highly upbeat earnings call, underscoring a year defined by record revenue, a decisive return to profitability, and strong cash generation. Management acknowledged some early ramp‑up and cost headwinds but stressed that plant performance, exploration success, and Boumadine’s economics position the company for continued momentum.

Record Revenue and Swing to Profitability

Aya posted 2025 revenue of $202 million, a more than fivefold jump from $39 million in 2024 as production scaled up at Zgounder. The company moved from a $26 million loss to $46 million in net income, translating into earnings per share of roughly $0.32–$0.33 and marking a clear inflection in its financial trajectory.

Stronger Cash Generation and Balance Sheet

Operating cash flow surged to about $72 million in 2025 from negative $9 million a year earlier, supported by higher output and better margins. Aya ended the year with $136 million of unrestricted cash plus $16 million restricted, and management emphasized minimal near‑term financing needs for Boumadine under current plans.

Plant Throughput Far Above Design

Processing performance stood out, with the Zgounder mill averaging roughly 3,800 tonnes per day in Q4 against a 2,700 tpd nameplate, about 40% above design. Plant availability reached 99% in the quarter and 96% for the year, as throughput ramped from around 1,200 tpd in Q4 2024 to the current levels.

Recoveries Beat Feasibility Expectations

Metallurgical recoveries improved sharply during the year after early issues were addressed at the oxygen plant. Average annual recovery reached 88.4%, while Q4 recovery was about 91.2%, roughly 3–4 percentage points better than feasibility design and directly supporting higher metal output and margins.

Production Momentum and Mining Trends

Q4 production reached roughly 1.55 million ounces, including some Boumadine tailings, reflecting the strong plant performance. Over 2025 the mine processed about 1.1 million tonnes against 1.0 million tonnes mined, but Q4 saw mining exceed processing, indicating a shift toward stockpile building.

Boumadine PEA Shows Standout Economics

The Boumadine preliminary economic assessment outlined a low initial capital cost of $446 million with a pretax NPV of $2.2 billion at higher metal price assumptions. The project boasts an IRR of 69%, a payback of just 1.3 years, and average gold‑equivalent output of around 400,000 ounces per year in the first five years at AISC near $920.

Aggressive, Low-Cost Exploration Push

Aya is leaning heavily into exploration with roughly 28,000 meters of drilling at Zgounder and around 150,000 meters at Boumadine in 2025 at an efficient cost of about $144 per meter. For 2026, the company plans even larger programs of about 200,000 meters at Boumadine and 20,000 meters at Zgounder, targeting resource growth and new discoveries.

Margins and Earnings Strengthen Each Quarter

Quarterly margins climbed from about $13 per ounce in the first half to $20 in Q3 and roughly $38 in Q4 as recoveries and throughput improved. Net income followed suit, rising from $7 million in Q1 to $18 million in Q4, when earnings per share reached around $0.12, highlighting steady operating leverage.

Early Oxygen Plant Issues Now Resolved

Management detailed that early‑2025 recoveries were stuck in the low‑80% range because the oxygen plant was under‑designed for the expanded operation. After investing in fixes and dedicating operational focus, recoveries moved into the high‑80s and low‑90s, though the setback weighed on early‑year cash flow.

Open Pit Grade Control and Mining Mix

Open‑pit mining delivered about 62% of total tonnes in 2025, below the company’s 70% target mix for the operation. The team highlighted grade‑control improvements and plans to increase open‑pit throughput as key levers to optimize costs and ensure the mine plan is executed as designed.

High Strip Ratios Elevate Near-Term Costs

New mine planning points to early strip ratios of roughly 13x to 15x, which will push up cash costs in the near term as waste is removed. Management guided to 2026 mine‑plan cash costs of about $21.50 per ounce, with expectations that unit costs should fall as strip ratios normalize in later years.

Inflation and Cost Pressures Remain a Risk

Aya flagged higher prices for fuel, zinc, cyanide, and sulfur as ongoing cost challenges, despite regulated fuel pricing in Morocco and a shift to grid power helping mitigate some pressures. The company is using stockpiles and procurement strategies to offset part of the inflation impact, but overall cost exposure remains a risk factor.

Concentrate Payability and Market Uncertainty

At Boumadine, concentrate payability assumptions have improved modestly from about 73% in the earlier PEA to near 75% in more recent indications. However, management underscored that ultimate payabilities and the monetization of sulfur by‑products are not fully locked in and are treated conservatively in the base‑case planning.

Complex but Conservative Guidance Messaging

The company acknowledged that multiple guidance ranges could cause some investor confusion in the short term. Aya contrasted headline production targets around 6.2–6.8 million ounces with a 5.8 million ounce mine‑plan forecast and a more conservative disclosed band of 5.2–5.8 million ounces for Zgounder, plus roughly 1 million silver‑equivalent ounces from Boumadine tailings.

Forward Guidance and Capital Plans

For 2026, Aya is targeting total company production in the mid‑single‑digit million ounce range, supported by Zgounder’s 43‑101 plan and tailings production at Boumadine. The company expects higher near‑term cash costs due to stripping but is pushing throughput above 4,000 tpd, budgeting $36 million for sustaining and growth capital and about $60 million for exploration, all underpinned by its strong cash balance and existing credit facility.

Aya’s earnings call painted the picture of a miner that has turned a crucial corner, with rapid growth translating into profits and robust cash flow. While cost inflation, high early strip ratios, and market uncertainties offer clear challenges, investors heard a story of improving operations, ambitious exploration, and a flagship Boumadine project that could materially reshape Aya’s future profile.