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ANZ Earnings Call: Profit Up, Revenue Still Lagging

ANZ Earnings Call: Profit Up, Revenue Still Lagging

Australia & New Zealand Banking Group ((ANZGY)) has held its Q2 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call.

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Australia & New Zealand Banking Group’s latest earnings call struck a cautiously upbeat tone, with management highlighting stronger profitability, tighter cost control and a more resilient capital position. Executives also acknowledged flat revenue, competitive pressures in core lending, and execution risks tied to major technology and integration programs that could weigh on future performance.

Improved Returns Signal Early Payoff From ANZ 2030 Plan

Return on tangible equity climbed to 11.6%, up 161 basis points from the prior half and a key sign that the ANZ 2030 transformation is gaining traction. Management framed the uplift as evidence that early strategic initiatives are translating into better earnings quality and more efficient use of shareholder capital.

Capital Buffer Strengthens With Higher CET1 Ratio

The Common Equity Tier 1 ratio rose to 12.39%, an increase of 36 basis points since September, reinforcing ANZ’s loss‑absorbing capacity and regulatory resilience. This stronger capital position gives the bank more flexibility to sustain dividends and pursue strategic options without stretching its balance sheet.

Costs Drop Sharply As Productivity Targets Are Upgraded

Operating costs fell about 9% half‑on‑half, or 8% on a constant currency basis, pushing the cost‑to‑income ratio down to 49.4% from 54.6%. Productivity savings of roughly $392 million in the half led management to lift its FY26 target to $875 million, indicating more room for efficiency gains ahead.

Cash Profit Growth Supports Solid Shareholder Returns

Group cash profit after tax reached $3.8 billion, with cash profit excluding significant items up around 14% and profit before provisions up about 12%. Total shareholder return was 10.7% in the half, while the interim dividend was held at $0.83 per share and franking increased to 75%, with the DRP neutralized.

Deposit Growth Improves Funding Mix And Margins

Customer deposits excluding markets grew by $11 billion in the half, or about $20 billion on a constant currency basis, underscoring strong balance sheet funding. Save and transact deposits rose roughly $16 billion on a constant currency basis, enhancing the funding mix and adding about 2 basis points to net interest margin.

Lending And Markets Businesses Deliver Mixed Performance

Customer loans and advances increased by around $16 billion on a constant currency basis, including a $5 billion lift in Australia home lending as growth momentum improved to about 0.85 times system in March. Markets income of $1.1 billion was up 8%, with 72% earned outside Australia and strong contributions from FX, rates and commodities.

Portfolio Quality Remains Strong With Higher Coverage

The individual provision annualized loss rate held at 4 basis points for the third consecutive half, well below the long‑run average of about 11 basis points. Collective provisions increased to $4.45 billion, taking coverage to 1.22%, and the collective balance now stands at roughly 13 times individual provisions taken in FY25.

Large‑Scale Strategic Programs Progress But Carry Risk

The Suncorp Bank migration is 34% complete, with plans to reach 57% by the end of FY26 and full completion targeted for June 2027, backed by quarterly progress updates. ANZ’s single customer front end is 13% complete toward a 45% target by FY26 and delivery in September 2027, underscoring both the ambition and execution risk of these programs.

Private Bank And New Zealand Continue To Outperform

Private Bank reported deposits up 6%, funds under management up 8% and lending up 17%, while also securing four Euromoney awards including Australia’s Best Private Bank. ANZ New Zealand retained its #1 position with 2.7 million customers, strong main‑financial‑institution shares and save and transact deposits up 4%.

Flat Revenue Highlights Underwhelming Rate Tailwind Capture

Group revenue was flat half‑on‑half, and only up about 1% on a constant currency basis after adjusting for hedge effects, a softer outcome than many investors expected in a higher rate backdrop. Management conceded that revenue capture has lagged market‑wide tailwinds, raising questions over the bank’s revenue engine.

Customer Experience And Market Position Remain Weak Spots

Australia Retail strategic NPS was stable but low at 2.9, leaving ANZ an “uncomfortable” fourth among major banks with an 11.6% main‑institution share. Business Bank NPS slipped to -0.4, and lending growth in that franchise continues to trail system, highlighting work to do on customer proposition and growth.

Lending Growth Lags In Key Australian Segments

Overall lending growth was softer in the half, with Australia home lending and Business Bank particularly weak versus system benchmarks. While home lending momentum is now approaching system levels in April, Business Bank lending remains behind, underlining competitive challenges in core domestic credit.

Provisioning Steps Up Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

ANZ booked a $126 million collective provision charge after increasing the weight of severe economic scenarios by 2.5%, alongside $148 million of individual provisions including $79 million for wholesale and small business. Management flagged ongoing downside risk if geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, persist.

Margin Pressure From Competition And Deposit Mix Shifts

Headline net interest margin slipped by 1 basis point in the half, with asset pricing shaving about 3 basis points due to the timing of RBA moves and intense home loan competition. Executives warned that customers moving into higher‑yielding term deposits and sustained competitive pricing could further compress margins.

FX Translation Acts As A Revenue Headwind

Negative foreign exchange translation reduced revenue by about $205 million in the half, partly offset by around $99 million of hedge benefits in other income and some relief on the expense line. Management cautioned that as hedges roll off and rate differentials evolve, FX could become a more meaningful headwind toward FY28.

Execution Risk Looms Over Transformation And Revenue Plans

Management reiterated that large technology and integration programs, including Suncorp migration and the single front end, remain significant delivery risks despite being on track. They also acknowledged that revenue momentum has lagged peers, making successful execution of “Phase 2” revenue initiatives critical to restoring market confidence.

Guidance: Cost Discipline, Strong Capital And Measured Growth

Looking ahead, ANZ reaffirmed its Phase‑1 guidance, targeting about a 5% cost reduction by FY26 from a $11.85 billion FY25 baseline supported by $875 million in productivity savings within a $1.5 billion investment envelope. Management expects a group NIM around 1.53% with a replicating portfolio adding roughly 7 basis points over 12–18 months, while maintaining robust capital, conservative provisioning and steady progress on major programs.

ANZ’s earnings call painted the picture of a bank tightening its cost base and fortifying capital while grappling with lukewarm revenue growth and competitive pressure in key lending segments. For investors, the story hinges on whether strong execution of transformation programs and productivity gains can translate into faster revenue growth without eroding the bank’s hard‑won balance‑sheet strength.

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