Amazon (AMZN) stock has fallen 13.4% over the past week, 14.6% over the past month, and 8.2% over the past year, as investors digest a sharp jump in spending plans and worries about near-term free cash flow. Yet Wall Street’s analysts are firmly bullish, with a StrongBuy consensus and an average 12‑month price target of $283.49 versus a last close of $210.32. That target implies meaningful upside from current levels, even as the market debates whether Amazon’s massive new investment cycle will pay off quickly enough.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade AMZNLeading the bullish camp, UBS analyst Stephen Ju reiterated his Buy rating and set a $301 price target, arguing that Amazon Web Services (AWS) is entering a powerful new growth phase driven by artificial intelligence. Ju projects AWS growth to double to 38% in 2026 from 19% in 2025, with performance obligations and backlog potentially reaching about $400 billion by year-end. He sees AWS revenue and operating profit essentially doubling in two years, pushing 2027 GAAP EPS to roughly $14 and leaving the shares trading at around 14 times those earnings – a discount to megacap peers despite what he views as a superior earnings growth profile. This 5‑star analyst ranks 685 out of 11,984 on TipRanks, with a 52.45% success rate and 12.7% average return per rating.
Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney also reiterated a Buy (Outperform) but trimmed his price target to $285 from $335 after what he called a “Beat & Mixed” quarter. He highlights strong Q4 results – AWS acceleration, cloud market share gains, a healthy backlog, and record operating margins in North America and International retail (adjusted for one-time items) – but flags the guidance shock: $200 billion in 2026 capex and a weaker-than-expected Q1 operating income outlook, driven by investments in international markets, faster delivery, and Amazon’s Leo project. Mahaney believes 2026 is likely a negative free-cash-flow year, leaving the stock potentially range‑bound until investors can see a clearer free‑cash‑flow rebound in 2027 or a more obvious revenue acceleration. This 5‑star analyst ranks 995 out of 11,984, with a 52.02% success rate and 9.8% average return per rating.
Bank of America’s Justin Post maintains a Buy rating with a reduced $275 target (from $286), framing Amazon’s story around returns on capex as the key driver for the stock. Post notes that Q4 sales of $213 billion and GAAP profit of $25 billion topped expectations, powered by 24% AWS growth that beat forecasts and marked the strongest quarterly revenue increase in the unit’s history. However, the Q1 profit outlook came in below the Street, as Amazon pours money into international retail pricing, lower seller fees, and a $1 billion year‑over‑year increase in Leo costs. He sees Amazon’s $200 billion capex plan, mostly aimed at AWS and AI‑driven demand, as a familiar investment cycle: revenue estimates tick up, profit estimates edge down, and free cash flow turns volatile before capacity is fully utilized. On TipRanks, this top‑tier 5‑star analyst ranks 54 out of 11,984, with a 68.65% success rate and a 25% average return per rating.
Other analysts echo the same tension between heavy spending and long‑term opportunity. Piper Sandler’s Thomas Champion reiterated his Overweight (Buy) rating but cut his price target to $260 from $300, saying the $200 billion capex guide “spooked” the market even as AWS growth and AI‑driven demand improve. Mizuho’s Lloyd Walmsley kept an Outperform (Buy) with a $315 target, arguing that AWS is catching up fast in the AI cloud race, with accelerating growth, a strong backlog, and expanding capacity through Trainium chips. Maxim’s Tom Forte reiterated his Buy rating and raised his target to $290, saying elevated capex boosts Amazon’s ability to monetize AI across multiple fronts. Despite near‑term margin and free‑cash‑flow pressure, the analyst community broadly agrees that Amazon’s aggressive investment in AWS, AI, and international retail could set up significant upside from today’s depressed share price. Never miss a stock rating. Find all the latest ratings on TipRanks’ Top Wall Street Analysts page.