U.S. Models $200 Oil as War Risk Drives Brent and WTI Surge

The U.S. government is running stress tests assuming crude could spike to $200 per barrel, assessing potential economic damage as geopolitical tensions and war risks persist. The scenario work follows mixed policy signals from Washington on de-escalation efforts and highlights market concern that Oil – Brent Crude and Oil – US Crude could face further supply shocks if the conflict broadens.

Over the past month, Brent has surged about 47.08%, while U.S. crude has advanced roughly 43.89%, reflecting a sharp risk premium and tightening supply expectations. Both Brent and WTI currently flash a 1-day Buy and Buy signal respectively, suggesting near-term bullish momentum remains intact even as volatility and policy uncertainty stay elevated. Investors can explore more updates, prices, and analysis across global markets at Commodities.