Oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical risk despite expanded U.S. shale supply, with the latest upswing in Oil – Brent Crude (CM:BZ) linked to rising tensions between the United States and Iran and renewed focus on potential disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. The market reaction suggests that traders who assume only a full-scale blockade can move prices may be underestimating how quickly risk premiums can return.
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Over the past month, Brent has gained about 6%, reflecting a rebuilding geopolitical risk premium alongside ongoing supply discipline from key producers. The 1-day technical outlook for Brent currently points to a Buy signal, indicating near-term momentum remains skewed to the upside even as volatility around Middle East headlines stays elevated.