Citi Flags Geopolitical Deals as Potential Catalyst for $60 Brent

Citi analysts expect near-term geopolitical risks to underpin crude benchmarks but argue that successful U.S.-brokered agreements with Russia and Iran could ease supply constraints and pressure prices lower. Their base case envisions potential resolutions by summer that could pull Oil – Brent Crude toward $60–$62 per barrel and narrow refining margins for diesel and gasoline.

Over the past month, Brent has advanced about 7.1%, reflecting ongoing risk premia, yet its 1-day technical stance is Strong Buy, pointing to still-bullish momentum despite Citi’s medium-term downside scenario. In contrast, Natural Gas has declined roughly 6.7% over the same period, and its short-term 1-day signal is Sell, suggesting near-term weakness even as broader energy market dynamics remain driven by geopolitics.

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