Tech-focused asset manager ARK Invest is changing how it picks stocks by looking at where the crowd puts its money. The firm, led by Cathie Wood, announced that it will now use prediction market data from Kalshi to guide its research. This move shows that professional investors are starting to value these betting-style markets as a way to see real-time shifts in the economy.
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Trade ARKK with leveragePrediction Market Data Sharpens Institutional Research
ARK plans to use Kalshi’s data to get a better pulse on what the market expects to happen next. Instead of just looking at old financial reports, the firm will analyze trading volume and price movements on specific outcome-based markets. Cathie Wood explained that “bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research.”
These markets allow people to trade on the outcome of real-world events, like whether a certain law will pass or if a new technology will meet its launch date. Nick Grous, ARK’s research director, noted that these platforms “offer some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes,” making them a valuable tool for hedging and managing risk.
Macroeconomic Tracking Improves Economic Forecasts
ARK is helping create new markets. The firm has been working with Kalshi to list topics they are curious about, such as scientific milestones and deficit-to-GDP ratios. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour confirmed that several of these are already live, including “non-farm payroll markets, deficit-to-GDP ratio markets, business KPIs, and more.”
This strategy is also gaining support from top government and academic groups. Last month, researchers at the U.S. Federal Reserve argued that Kalshi’s data provides a better way to measure the economy in real time than traditional tools. They stated that “Kalshi markets provide a high-frequency, continuously updated, distributionally rich benchmark that is valuable to both researchers and policymakers.”
Prediction Markets Hit Record Levels of Popularity
The move by ARK Invest comes as prediction markets hit record levels of popularity, with monthly trading volumes now consistently topping $10 billion. While these platforms were once seen as niche crypto tools, they are now being used by institutions like Cornell University to study how traders react to major political and global events.
Essentially, ARK is looking to beat lagging data that usually drops weeks after a trend begins. This real-time perspective helps the firm move faster when updating its portfolios.
