Trump’s Venezuela–Cuba Warning: Potential Ripple Effects on Energy and Defense Stocks

President Trump has posted a new announcement on Truth Social, the social media platform. He wrote:

“Cuba lived, for many years, on large amounts of OIL and MONEY from Venezuela. In return, Cuba provided “Security Services” for the last two Venezuelan dictators, BUT NOT ANYMORE! Most of those Cubans are DEAD from last weeks U.S.A. attack, and Venezuela doesn’t need protection anymore from the thugs and extortionists who held them hostage for so many years. Venezuela now has the United States of America, the most powerful military in the World (by far!), to protect them, and protect them we will. THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA – ZERO! I strongly suggest they make a deal, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DJT”

How Will Trump’s Statement Affect the Stock Market?

This latest post has the potential to affect the stock market. That’s because Trump’s statement threatening to cut off Venezuelan oil and money flows to Cuba could raise perceived geopolitical risk in the Americas, potentially lifting oil prices and benefiting large integrated producers and refiners like Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Valero, and broad energy ETFs (XLE, OIH, VDE). At the same time, the emphasis on U.S. military protection and heightened regional tensions could bolster expectations for defense spending, supporting defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin and RTX, along with aerospace and defense ETFs (PPA, XAR, ITA). However, if markets see the post as political rhetoric without imminent policy changes, the reaction in both energy and defense names may be modest and short‑lived.

Here are some of the stocks that might be affected:
Chevron ((CVX)),
Exxon Mobil Corp. ((XOM)),
Lockheed Martin ((LMT)),
Rtx Corporation ((RTX)),
Valero Energy Corporation ((VLO)),
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund ((XLE)),
VanEck Oil Services ETF ((OIH)),
Vanguard Energy ETF ((VDE)),
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF ((PPA)),
SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF ((XAR)),
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ((ITA)).