There have been plenty of bullish projections about Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) over the past few years, and it’s not hard to see why. In a very real sense, the company is powering large swaths of the AI revolution through its best-in-class GPUs.
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New trading tool for NVDA bearsThat dominance has translated into staggering market performance. Nvidia now stands as the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, with a market cap north of $4 trillion. Over the past five years, the stock has surged nearly 1,200% – and that’s even with recent market jitters weighing on valuations across the board.
CEO Jensen Huang reflects nothing but optimism in his regular public appearances, projecting unvarnished confidence in the company’s unrelenting success in riding the growing AI wave. He has recently predicted that the company will achieve a $1 trillion order book for GPU sales through the end of next year.
Still, the question remains what will happen when the hyperscaler capex invariably slows down. Doesn’t Nvidia’s continued growth depend on the current spate of uber bucks big tech is shelling out for its hardware?
Investor Beth Kindig doesn’t see it that way. She argues the market is still underestimating the scale of what Nvidia is building, viewing it not as a hardware cycle but as the foundation of a new computing paradigm. From that perspective, today’s demand is only the starting point – and in her view, it could ultimately support a valuation reaching as high as $20 trillion by 2030.
“The $20 trillion market cap will not come from GPU unit growth alone, though unit growth remains very important. Rather, the value proposition will increasingly focus on economic output. This marks a tremendous shift in how Nvidia is evaluated,” wrote Kindig, whose prescient calls on the AI semiconductor industry date back to 2018 and have even earned her the title of ‘Queen of Nvidia.’
Instead, the battle lines will be drawn around which products deliver better value at the system level. In that sense, the binary debate between Nvidia’s chips and custom silicon over market share is misguided, according to Kindig.
For starters, the investor points out that the huge capex outlays are expanding the market. Moreover, GPUs remain the most flexible architecture when default workloads change.
However, Nvidia truly proves its mettle when it comes to the increasingly robust performance.
“If Nvidia continues to lead in performance per watt and performance per rack, its premium valuation can persist,” adds Kindig.
For instance, the company expects that its recent Groq acquisition will support a 15x increase in tokens per second. Kindig also notes that this will come on top of the 10x jump from Blackwell to Rubin.
“If these claims hold true, then cheaper inference will unlock more usage, and more usage should lead to higher revenue and higher profits as the AI monetization wave plays out,” she states.
That helps support Kindig’s predictions of $930 billion in annual data center revenue by the end of the decade. Apply a 22x price-to-sales multiple – still below Nvidia’s three-year average – and the path to a $20 trillion valuation, according to the investor, starts to come into view. (To watch Kindig’s track record, click here)
Wall Street, for its part, is largely aligned – though its focus is on the next 12 months, not 2030. Nvidia boasts a Strong Buy consensus rating, backed by 41 Buys, 1 Hold, and just 1 Sell. The average 12-month price target of $273.57 implies 54% upside ahead. (See NVDA stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.