Cybersecurity companies Fortinet (FTNT) and Cloudflare (NET) could be two winners from rising post-quantum cryptography spending, according to BTIG. The investment firm’s argument starts with “Q-Day,” which is the moment when a powerful quantum computer could break RSA-2048 encryption, a major security standard used today. Some experts believe that could happen as soon as 2028 or 2029. BTIG also noted that two research papers published in March suggested the number of physical qubits needed to break this encryption may be as low as 10,000, far below the previous estimate of about 1 million.
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Why Q-Day and ‘Harvest Now, Decrypt Later’ Are Driving Security Spending
Because of this new qubits requirement, post-quantum cryptography spending could rise sharply as governments and companies try to protect their systems before quantum computers become a major threat. BTIG estimates that the market could reach $3 billion to $8 billion by 2030. Governments are already investing to meet post-quantum standards, while some companies are moving even faster, especially in industries exposed to “harvest now, decrypt later” risks.
For context, this means attackers could steal encrypted data today and try to decrypt it later once quantum computers become powerful enough. Apple iMessage, Signal, and many cloud platforms already offer post-quantum protections. BTIG believes that much of this spending will go to established cybersecurity and infrastructure companies like Cloudflare and Fortinet because they are already capturing some post-quantum cryptography demand.
The firm also said quantum-related stocks may get more validation once quantum computers can successfully run Shor’s algorithm, which is a quantum-computing method that could quickly break today’s common encryption. Still, the exact timing of Q-Day remains uncertain. In addition, one area that BTIG flagged as behind the curve is cryptocurrency, where post-quantum adoption appears to be slower despite $2 trillion to $3 trillion in outstanding assets.
Which Cybersecurity Stock Is the Better Buy?
Overall, out of the two stocks mentioned above, analysts think that NET stock has more room to run than FTNT. In fact, NET’s price target of $235.65 per share implies 21% upside versus FTNT’s 8% downside risk.
