About $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire on Friday as geopolitical tensions rise due to the current conflict with Iran. Notably, this expiry will remove nearly 40% of open positions on the Deribit exchange, which is a big deal because these contracts have been quietly influencing how Bitcoin trades. So the key question now is whether Bitcoin has been artificially kept stable, and if removing that support will lead to a bigger move, especially with global uncertainty still high.
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Up until now, Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow range between roughly $60,000 and $75,000. Even with ongoing global tensions and some money flowing into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, the price hasn’t moved much. According to Bloomberg and market participants, a big reason is how options trading has been shaping the market. Many institutional investors have been betting that Bitcoin wouldn’t rise sharply, which forced market makers to constantly buy when prices drop and sell when prices rise to manage their risk. As a result, Bitcoin has been pulled toward a key level near $75,000.
However, that setup is about to change. Once these options expire, the constant buying and selling tied to those trades will disappear, leaving Bitcoin more exposed to outside forces like geopolitics and interest rates. Traders at AMINA Bank say that Bitcoin could stay between $70,000 and $75,000 if nothing major changes, but a peace deal could push it above $75,000, while failed talks could send it back toward $68,500. At the same time, ETF inflows, about $1.5 billion in March, have been inconsistent and sensitive to rate expectations, with one day alone seeing $163 million pulled out.
Is Bitcoin a Good Buy?
Using TipRanks’ technical analysis tool, the indicators seem to point to a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Indeed, the summary section pictured below shows that 10 indicators are Bullish, compared to five Neutral and seven Bearish indicators.
