The upcoming U.S. presidential election has investors excited – not just about who will win, but about what it means for Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) price. History shows that Bitcoin tends to rally in the year following an election, regardless of the winning candidate. This time around, whether it’s Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, many analysts expect a similar post-election surge for the largest cryptocurrency.
According to crypto analyst Van Straten, Bitcoin’s price is currently undervalued compared to past cycles, especially when measured from the cycle low after the FTX collapse in November 2022 or since April’s Bitcoin halving. “Bitcoin is likely to top $100,000 after the U.S. election, if history is any guide,” he noted, hinting that Bitcoin could follow a similar pattern to previous elections. This “undervaluation” could mean that Bitcoin has a lot of ground to gain if it continues to follow historical trends.
Past Election Patterns Show Consistent Rallies
Looking back, Bitcoin has rallied after every U.S. election since its creation in 2009. During the 2012 election, Bitcoin traded at a mere $11 and surged by nearly 12,000% to reach over $1,100 by November 2013. Similarly, following the 2016 election, Bitcoin rose from $700 to about $18,000 by December 2017, marking a 3,600% increase. And after the most recent 2020 election, Bitcoin climbed from around $13,000 to a peak of approximately $69,000 in a year.
However, while Bitcoin has consistently rallied post-election, the size of these jumps has gradually diminished. Each election cycle has brought a lower percentage gain, suggesting diminishing returns as the market matures. This time, analysts predict a post-election rally of around 47.8%, which would push Bitcoin to roughly $103,500 by late 2025.
Bitcoin’s Current Undervaluation May Signal Extra Upside
Beyond just the election, The Financial Times argues that Bitcoin is still undervalued in this cycle, creating even more room for growth. Following April’s halving, Bitcoin is only up about 7% – the weakest post-halving performance yet, indicating that the market hasn’t fully priced in its usual cycle growth. For those bullish on Bitcoin, this undervaluation is a sign of “potential gains waiting to happen,” as Van Straten puts it.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $67,488.04.
