British energy giant BP Plc (BP) is heading into its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results bubbling with life. The London-based company has outrun Big Oil rivals such as ExxonMobil (XOM) in terms of performance since the start of the U.S. war on Iran, with BP recently predicting “exceptional” results from its oil trading during the quarter marked by conflict-driven spikes in prices.
Meet Samuel – Your Personal Investing Prophet
- Start a conversation with TipRanks’ trusted, data-backed investment intelligence
- Ask Samuel about stocks, your portfolio, or the market and get instant, personalized insights in seconds
What’s the Analyst Forecast for BP in Q1?
During the three months that ended on March 31, analysts on Wall Street expect the London-based crude oil producer to have grown its earnings per American Depositary Share — or replacement cost profit — by roughly 87% year-over-year to $0.99. They also see its revenue rising by 3.39% from a year ago to $48.50 billion.
Between March 2nd, the next trading day after the start of the Middle East conflict, and last Friday, BP shares have risen by roughly 17%.
How BP Performance Compares to Big Oil Peers
In comparison, ExxonMobil’s shares are down more than 3%, while Chevron’s (CVX) declined by over 2% during the same period. Only ConocoPhillips (COP) bucked the trend with a modest 3% gain.
Shell (SHEL), like its British peer BP, is also guiding for stronger oil trading during the quarter. The crude oil producer expects higher oil prices to help to offset its lower gas production and short-term strain on readily available cash.
Why U.S. Oil Companies Are Lagging
Meanwhile, U.S. companies have been hit harder by the conflict. Already, ExxonMobil expects its global production to fall by 6% during the quarter, with its energy products division bracing for a $3.7 billion hit to earnings.
The Texas-based company attributes this to disruption to its assets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. About a fifth of ExxonMobil’s global production comes from both countries.
The American superoil major owns a stake in the Las Raffan liquefied natural gas complex in Qatar that was hit by Iranian missiles last month.
Which Is the Best Oil Stock to Buy?
According to TipRanks’ Best Oil Stocks, ConocoPhillips offers the biggest upside of about 17%. This is based on an average price target of $141.94 and comes with a Moderate Buy rating.
