ASTL, SU, NTR: Canada’s Exports to U.S. Near Record Low

Canada’s exports to the U.S. have declined for a fourth consecutive month and are near an all-time low.

The latest data shows that Canadian exports to the U.S. decreased 0.9% in May, while the average share of total Canadian exports to the U.S. fell to 68.3% from 75.9% at the end of 2024, near a record low. The ongoing drop in exports from Canada to America comes as the two countries engage in a protracted trade battle. At the same time, Canada’s exports to other countries have reached a record high.

Canadian exports to the U.S. that have slowed in recent months include products ranging from steel and aluminum to oil and natural gas and fertilizer used by American farmers to grow crops. The slowdown has impacts the stocks of Canadian companies such as Algoma Steel (ASTL), Suncor Energy (SU), and fertilizer company Nutrien (CA:NTR).

Diversification

The latest data also shows that Canada’s imports from the U.S. have decreased for three consecutive months as America’s northern neighbor diversifies into new markets and suppliers. Data from Statistics Canada indicates that Canadian exports to countries other than the U.S. increased by 5.7% in May of this year, a record high.

Countries that Canada is increasingly exporting to beyond the U.S. include higher unwrought gold shipments to the United Kingdom (U.K.), more crude oil sent to Singapore and China, and increased aluminum and pharmaceutical products shipped to the European Union (EU). The largest U.S. trade partners remain Mexico, Canada and China.

Is SU Stock a Buy?

The stock of Suncor Energy has a consensus Moderate Buy rating among 12 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on seven Buy and five Hold recommendations issued in the last three months. The average SU price target of $43.65 implies 15.38% upside from current levels.

Read more analyst ratings on SU stock