AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) is a space-based cellular broadband firm that aims to connect regular phones to its low Earth-orbit satellites. The company is set to report its first-quarter 2026 results on Monday, May 11, after the close, and the market is braced for a big move.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade ASTSOptions traders are pricing in a 19.04% move in either direction after the report. That shows how much doubt still sits around the stock, even after its strong run and sharp bounce last week.
The main focus will be on satellite rollout. Investors will look for fresh news on the BlueBird 8 to BlueBird 10 satellites, which the company has said are set to ship within 30 days of the call. They will also want to know if AST SpaceMobile is still on track to have 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, ASTS shares jumped nearly 15% on Friday, closing at $75.05.
Cash, Costs, and Telecom Deals in Focus
In its last call, AST said it had moved from a pre-revenue firm to a revenue firm. It also said it had more than $1 billion in firm revenue pledges and a strong cash base of about $3.9 billion on a pro forma basis. That cash gives the company more room to fund its buildout, but the cost of the buildout remains high.
As a result, spending will be key. AST guided for first-quarter adjusted operating costs, not tied to revenue, of $70 million to $80 million. It also sees first-quarter capital spending of $350 million to $425 million. Investors will want to know if those costs are still on plan.
Partnerships will be another big focus. AST has deals and ties with major telecom firms, including Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), AT&T Inc. (T), and Vodafone Group Plc (VOD). Any new detail on these partners could help show how fast AST can turn its network plan into sales.
Why ASTS Rallied on Friday
On related news, ASTS stock jumped 14.84% on Friday. The move appeared tied to a mix of good news, event risk, and a sharp shift in mood ahead of earnings.
The biggest driver was the FCC approval. AST SpaceMobile received FCC approval to launch and run up to 248 low Earth orbit satellites for direct-to-device service. That is a key step for the company because its full growth plan depends on the right to run a large satellite network that can link to regular phones.
In addition, traders were likely buying ahead of the May 11 update. The stock had been hit by fears tied to launch timing, insider sales, and other risk points. So, Friday’s jump also looked like a rebound after a weak stretch, helped by high short interest and fresh hope that the call could bring good news.
Still, the rally does not erase the risks. The BlueBird-7 issue remains a concern, and AST must still prove it can build, launch, and turn on satellites at scale. The bull case rests on strong cash, major telecom deals, and a large market. The bear case rests on delays, high costs, and the gap between today’s revenue base and the firm’s long-term goals.
For now, the stock is trading on proof. On Monday, investors will look for signs that AST SpaceMobile can keep its launch plan on track, protect its cash, and move closer to full service in the second half of 2026.
Is ASTS Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to the Street, AST SpaceMobile Inc. has a Hold consensus, based on nine analysts’ ratings. The average ASTS stock price target is $88.28, implying a 17.62% upside from the current price.
